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Jeremy misses another Jeremy-type position

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 7 March 2012, at 12:33 p.m.

In Response To: Jeremy misses another Jeremy-type position (David Levy)

How many of the gammons come because white fans one or more times and how many come when blue is hit and picks up extra checkers?

Mostly from the fans. Blue cashes a lot. F.ex. if White hits with 62 bar/19* 5/3. That's double/pass, not too good to play on since Blue loses more often than he wins a gammon. If White hits with 65 bar/19* 8/3, Blue has a borderline play-on. If White hits with 63 bar/19* 8/5, Blue is not quite good enough to redouble. If White hits with 51 bar/20/19*, Blue's too good.

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Gnubg can be manipulated to cough up some other data.

After 6/5*/1, cubeLESS, Blue wins 90.8% including 17.6% gammons. But cubeFUL, Blue wins about 94.6% of the time including about 13.7% gammons.

White fans 44.44% of the time. When White fans, Blue wins about 98.6% of the time including about 25.8% gammons.

White hits about 40.7% of the time. Since only 36.11% of these hits are immediate, the other 4.64% must come after White fans (65 64 54 leave an immmediate blot or Blue can blot later on the 4 or 3 point).

Blue only hits White in about 11% of all games. Of the games in which White hits, Blue only hits back 27% of the time.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 2 (match to 7 points)

Move number 11: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	72
Blue	53
Position ID: dx8UAQH3bgAAEA Match ID: UQngAAAAEAAE

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.7787	(Money: +0.7794)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0978	+0.0978
3.	No double	+0.9381	-0.0619
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.8204 0.1355 0.0031 - 0.1796 0.0000 0.0000 +0.7787 +0.9381 Standard error 0.0010 0.0018 0.0007 - 0.0010 0.0000 0.0000 0.0023 0.0035 Player White owns 4-cube 0.8172 0.1509 0.0057 - 0.1828 0.0000 0.0000 +1.4345 +1.0978 Standard error 0.0009 0.0019 0.0012 - 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 0.0041 0.0063
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1000 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913586610 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 2 (match to 7 points)

Move number 11: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	69
Blue	53
Position ID: d58QAQH3bgAAEA Match ID: UQngAAAAEAAE

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.8563	(Money: +0.8457)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.1719	+0.1719
3.	No double	+0.9932	-0.0068
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.8233 0.1962 0.0029 - 0.1767 0.0000 0.0000 +0.8563 +0.9932 Standard error 0.0014 0.0035 0.0008 - 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 0.0042 0.0065 Player White owns 4-cube 0.8234 0.2115 0.0177 - 0.1766 0.0000 0.0000 +1.5015 +1.1719 Standard error 0.0016 0.0045 0.0067 - 0.0016 0.0000 0.0000 0.0073 0.0122
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
282 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913586610 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Jeremy misses another Jeremy-type position
  Jeremy Bagai -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 7:13 p.m.
  • Jeremy misses another Jeremy-type position
    christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 8:13 p.m.
    • I suspect cube position matters
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 9:02 p.m.
      • RO with other cube positions (Neil is quite good at backgammon)
        Jeremy Bagai -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 11:41 p.m.
        • RO with other cube positions (Neil is quite good at backgammon)
          Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 7 March 2012, at 7:07 a.m.
  • Jeremy misses another Jeremy-type position
    David Levy -- Wednesday, 7 March 2012, at 12:29 a.m.
  • Jeremy misses another Jeremy-type position
    David Levy -- Wednesday, 7 March 2012, at 12:32 a.m.
    • Jeremy misses another Jeremy-type position
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 7 March 2012, at 12:33 p.m.