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OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 4:47 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout (Taper_Mike)

(1) It's not so much the number of builders but how well they are diversified so that rolls plays well.

After 8/2 11/9, 3's, 4's, 5's and 6's and 1-1 and 2-1 cover 1 blot, and 8 numbers (2-2, 4-4, 4-6, 5-6 and 3-5) cover both.

After 8/2 5/3, 1's, 2's, 4's, 5's and 6's and 33 cover 1 blot, and 9 numbers (2-2, 4-2, 4-6, 6-5, 5-1) cover both (but Blue may also not make the 5 point, a liability in case of a future shot, or in the bearoff).

After 11/3, only 6 numbers (4-5 4-6 5-6) complete the prime.

(2) Also important is that in the problem position, after any of these plays, there's no nondoublet roll that White will use to break the midpoint. So Blue's isn't getting a shot next turn. So he can afford to leave 2 blots this turn.

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