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Endgames are easy #2

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 6:54 p.m.

In Response To: Endgames are easy #2 (neilkaz)

So you leave a shot with 20 rolls. [65 64 63 61 54 53 51 43 41 31] You're then hit ~30% of the time and you still win from there ~50% of the time due to having (most of the time) 8 off and your opponent's deep spares. That means by playing on you should lose between 8-9% of the time.

The other 16 numbers range from super strong (doubles) to regular strength in ripping off two checkers or pointing on the ace.

Being 2 away in a short match your gammon value on a centered cube is obviously elevated, it pays to know by just how much for once. The gv is ~.9.

Your opponent runs next turn if he can no matter what he rolls. It seems you're on basically a 5 roll position having the free miss.

These are the facts of the case, do with them as you will. The last question I will add is if you were White, the 5 away player, would you be relieved to be doubled out here or disappointed?

Stick

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