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OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 12 March 2012, at 5:12 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout (pontiac)

after 2 slots, nearly all 7,8,10 should be played from mid.

Some players might, but they should not. Five checkers on the bar point give White time to try to clear the midpoint safely. I think these are some reasons why White should not volunteer a shot:

1. I would guess that if Blue promises to miss, then White is a little better off after playing, for example, 52 13/6 than 7/2 6/4, because it is more efficient and because Blue has less chance to hit the checker remaining on the midpoint (but count how many numbers do not clear the checker safely!). But before the roll White is only up 5 pips, with gaps for now on the 2 and 5 points. Blue has good GWC on the race alone.

2. Hitting with 5/3 or 6/2 creates 6 Blue blots. Kind of gammonish. But what about win percentage? If White leaves no shot with 61 52 43 62 54 63 64, his GWC is 62-64%. If White leaves a blot and is hit, White hits from the bar 20/36 = only 55.5%. If White fans, he must pass. White is better off racing.

3. If Blue hits with 4-4, White is royally screwed.

Some rollouts:

The score is: White 2, Blue 9 (match to 15 points). Blue has played 11/9 8/2.

White	94
Blue	99
Position ID: q+0SAAPZ3AcGAA Match ID: MAHnASAASAAE

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	7/6 7/1	+0.4289
			0.6222 0.0157 0.0003 - 0.3778 0.0128 0.0001 +0.2480 +0.4289 0.0017 0.0024 0.0001 - 0.0017 0.0019 0.0002 0.0041 0.0098
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			181 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/12 7/1	+0.3839 ( -0.0450)
			0.6052 0.0130 0.0002 - 0.3948 0.0271 0.0002 +0.1951 +0.3839 0.0017 0.0011 0.0001 - 0.0017 0.0026 0.0001 0.0043 0.0082
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			181 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/6	+0.3600 ( -0.0689)
			0.5884 0.0315 0.0038 - 0.4116 0.0286 0.0004 +0.1810 +0.3600 0.0018 0.0023 0.0015 - 0.0018 0.0024 0.0001 0.0058 0.0084
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			181 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/12 13/7	+0.3220 ( -0.1069)
			0.5797 0.0414 0.0050 - 0.4203 0.0312 0.0004 +0.1743 +0.3220 0.0021 0.0017 0.0008 - 0.0021 0.0047 0.0001 0.0068 0.0109
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	94
Blue	99
Position ID: q+0SAAPZ3AcGAA Match ID: MIHqASAASAAE

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	7/2 6/4	+0.4351
			0.6238 0.0194 0.0003 - 0.3762 0.0159 0.0004 +0.2530 +0.4351 0.0018 0.0016 0.0001 - 0.0018 0.0025 0.0001 0.0040 0.0083
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	7/2 4/2	+0.4274 ( -0.0077)
			0.6208 0.0191 0.0003 - 0.3792 0.0149 0.0003 +0.2480 +0.4274 0.0020 0.0015 0.0004 - 0.0020 0.0018 0.0001 0.0040 0.0088
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	7/2 3/1	+0.3912 ( -0.0439)
			0.6139 0.0179 0.0002 - 0.3861 0.0175 0.0002 +0.2277 +0.3912 0.0016 0.0024 0.0004 - 0.0016 0.0020 0.0001 0.0043 0.0094
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/6	+0.3597 ( -0.0754)
			0.5884 0.0314 0.0031 - 0.4116 0.0286 0.0004 +0.1810 +0.3597 0.0018 0.0023 0.0023 - 0.0018 0.0024 0.0001 0.0058 0.0084
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	94
Blue	99
Position ID: q+0SAAPZ3AcGAA Match ID: MAHuASAASAAE

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	7/4 7/3	+0.4378
			0.6251 0.0173 0.0002 - 0.3749 0.0139 0.0003 +0.2550 +0.4378 0.0018 0.0016 0.0001 - 0.0018 0.0020 0.0001 0.0037 0.0088
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	7/4 6/2	+0.4351 ( -0.0027)
			0.6238 0.0194 0.0003 - 0.3762 0.0159 0.0004 +0.2530 +0.4351 0.0018 0.0016 0.0001 - 0.0018 0.0025 0.0001 0.0040 0.0083
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/6	+0.3597 ( -0.0780)
			0.5884 0.0314 0.0031 - 0.4116 0.0286 0.0004 +0.1810 +0.3597 0.0018 0.0023 0.0023 - 0.0018 0.0024 0.0001 0.0058 0.0084
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	7/3 4/1	+0.3468 ( -0.0910)
			0.5979 0.0161 0.0003 - 0.4021 0.0183 0.0003 +0.1947 +0.3468 0.0021 0.0013 0.0001 - 0.0021 0.0029 0.0001 0.0044 0.0093
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	94
Blue	99
Position ID: q+0SAAPZ3AcGAA Match ID: MAHrASAASAAE

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	7/1 4/2	+0.4297
			0.6183 0.0192 0.0004 - 0.3817 0.0128 0.0001 +0.2434 +0.4297 0.0021 0.0022 0.0001 - 0.0021 0.0029 0.0001 0.0050 0.0085
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	7/1 6/4	+0.4203 ( -0.0094)
			0.6191 0.0176 0.0002 - 0.3809 0.0153 0.0002 +0.2413 +0.4203 0.0019 0.0013 0.0001 - 0.0019 0.0018 0.0001 0.0041 0.0083
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	7/1 3/1	+0.3251 ( -0.1046)
			0.5915 0.0122 0.0001 - 0.4085 0.0196 0.0003 +0.1745 +0.3251 0.0021 0.0021 0.0006 - 0.0021 0.0026 0.0001 0.0050 0.0082
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/7 6/4	+0.3027 ( -0.1270)
			0.5765 0.0323 0.0027 - 0.4235 0.0415 0.0004 +0.1474 +0.3027 0.0024 0.0026 0.0010 - 0.0024 0.0026 0.0002 0.0068 0.0138
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	94
Blue	99
Position ID: q+0SAAPZ3AcGAA Match ID: MAHzASAASAAE

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.2796	(Money: +0.2814)
	0.6408 0.0129 0.0001 - 0.3592 0.0131 0.0002
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.4458
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.5542
3.	Double, take	+0.3887	-0.0570
Proper cube action:		No double, take (9.3%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	7/3 7/1	+0.5069
			0.6404 0.0158 0.0008 - 0.3596 0.0136 0.0002 +0.2841 +0.5069 0.0015 0.0018 0.0005 - 0.0015 0.0015 0.0001 0.0039 0.0086
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	7/1 6/2	+0.4973 ( -0.0097)
			0.6392 0.0167 0.0003 - 0.3608 0.0128 0.0002 +0.2825 +0.4973 0.0016 0.0017 0.0001 - 0.0016 0.0020 0.0001 0.0041 0.0092
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/3	+0.4530 ( -0.0539)
			0.6196 0.0303 0.0026 - 0.3804 0.0233 0.0002 +0.2502 +0.4530 0.0017 0.0025 0.0055 - 0.0017 0.0024 0.0001 0.0050 0.0127
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913420271 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White 2, Blue 9 (match to 15 points). After White 64 13/3 ... Blue 53 20/12. White on roll

White	96
Blue	91
Position ID: q+0SAQK5uQ8AQA Match ID: MAH7ASAASAAE

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		-0.0406	(Money: -0.0215)
	0.4380 0.2315 0.0284 - 0.5620 0.1554 0.0022
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.0448
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.9552
3.	Double, take	-0.0693	-0.1141
Proper cube action:		No double, take (10.7%)

Leading to ...

White	96
Blue	91
Position ID: ubkPAECr7RIBAg Match ID: cAngASAASAAE

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		+0.8654	(Money: +0.8457)
	0.8640 0.1497 0.0010 - 0.1360 0.0320 0.0010
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.5848	+0.5848
3.	No double	+0.8948	-0.1052
Proper cube action:		Double, pass

Messages In This Thread

• OLM Sa 03/03/12
  Jason Lee -- Saturday, 3 March 2012, at 10:35 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 03/03/12
    havard Raddum -- Saturday, 3 March 2012, at 10:44 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 03/03/12
    Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 3 March 2012, at 11:14 p.m.
    • OLM Sa 03/03/12
      garyo -- Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 7:17 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 03/03/12
    Rodney Lighton -- Saturday, 3 March 2012, at 11:37 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 03/03/12
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 3 March 2012, at 11:47 p.m.
    • OLM Sa 03/03/12
      Mr Majestyk -- Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 12:59 a.m.
    • OLM Sa 03/03/12 — How best to close the board?
      Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 1:31 a.m.
      • OLM Sa 03/03/12 — How best to close the board?
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 2:28 a.m.
        • OLM Sa 03/03/12 — How best to close the board?
          Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 2:58 a.m.
          • OLM Sa 03/03/12 — How best to close the board?
            neilkaz -- Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 3:31 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 03/03/12
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 1:01 a.m.
    • OLM Sa 03/03/12
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 9:29 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 03/03/12
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 3:45 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 03/03/12
    lenny -- Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 8:34 a.m.
    • OLM Sa 03/03/12
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 4:41 p.m.
      • Have I've missed something in the flotsum of BG camaraderie? *NM*
        Mr Majestyk -- Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 4:56 p.m.
      • OLM Sa 03/03/12
        lenny -- Monday, 5 March 2012, at 1:19 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 03/03/12
    pontiac -- Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 9:51 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT
    Jason Lee -- Saturday, 10 March 2012, at 2:37 p.m.
    • OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout
      Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 4:13 a.m.
      • OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout
        Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 4:47 a.m.
        • OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout
          Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 5:20 a.m.
          • OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout
            Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 5:27 a.m.
      • OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout
        pontiac -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 8:05 a.m.
        • OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout
          Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 3:07 p.m.
          • OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout
            pontiac -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 8:03 p.m.
            • OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout
              Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 5:12 a.m.
              • OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout
                pontiac -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 9:02 a.m.
                • OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout
                  Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 11:38 a.m.
                  • OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout
                    pontiac -- Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 12:05 a.m.
      • OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout
        Stick -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 4:59 p.m.