[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 12 March 2012, at 11:38 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 03/03/12 ROLLOUT — Alternative 3-ply, 165k Rollout (pontiac)

From the original position, it doesn't take much of a change for 11/3 to be very right. See the rollout below. A checker has been moved from the bar point to the ace point.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 2, Blue 9 (match to 15 points)

Move number 4: White to play 61

White88

2X '2X2X2O3X4X ' ' ' ' '

2O '2O2O2O3O1O1O ' ' '2X
Blue99
Position ID: s+0KAAOzuQcGAA Match ID: MAHnASAASAAE

• White moves 13/6

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.3544(Money: +0.3563)
0.6782 0.0135 0.0001 - 0.3218 0.0135 0.0001
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.5663
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.4337
3.Double, take +0.5583 -0.0080
Proper cube action:No double, take (1.8%)

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R 13/6 +0.5429
0.64370.01110.0005-0.35630.01480.0001 +0.2845 +0.5429
0.00110.00160.0005-0.00110.00120.0000 0.0024 0.0060
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
372 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913417445 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 7/6 7/1 +0.5424 ( -0.0005)
0.65470.01180.0002-0.34530.01350.0002 +0.3086 +0.5424
0.00120.00120.0001-0.00120.00110.0001 0.0027 0.0048
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
371 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 913417445 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The rollout is not along enough, but that doesn't matter -- if White's decision to break from the midpoint is this close after 11/3, you can imagine that it's not close after 11/9 8/2. And it's not:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 2, Blue 9 (match to 15 points)

Move number 4: White to play 61

White88

2X '2X2X2O3X4X ' ' ' ' '

2O1O1O2O2O3O1O '1O ' '2X
Blue99
Position ID: q+0SAAOzuQcGAA Match ID: MAHnASAASAAE

• White moves 13/6

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.3957(Money: +0.3974)
0.6961 0.0169 0.0012 - 0.3039 0.0128 0.0002
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.6688
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.3312
3.Double, take +0.6529 -0.0159
Proper cube action:No double, take (4.6%)

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 2 13/6 +0.6917
0.6967 0.0088 0.0000 - 0.3033 0.0100 0.0000
2 2 13/12 13/7 +0.6853 ( -0.0064)
0.6767 0.0567 0.0054 - 0.3233 0.0197 0.0002
3 2 13/7 3/2 +0.5457 ( -0.1460)
0.6435 0.0390 0.0026 - 0.3565 0.0371 0.0006
4 2 13/12 7/1 +0.5255 ( -0.1662)
0.6610 0.0099 0.0000 - 0.3390 0.0230 0.0004
5 2 7/6 7/1 +0.5166 ( -0.1751)
0.6631 0.0118 0.0000 - 0.3369 0.0140 0.0001

The previous move:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 2, Blue 9 (match to 15 points)

Move number 3: Blue to play 62

White88

2X '2X2X2O3X4X ' ' ' ' '

2O '1O2O2O3O1O1O ' '1O2X
Blue107
Position ID: s7kHBgDTdkUAAw Match ID: cAnrASAASAAE

• Blue moves 11/9 8/2

Alert: very bad move ( -0.103)

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 11/3 -0.5663
0.3218 0.0135 0.0001 - 0.6782 0.0135 0.0001
2 2 11/5 6/4 -0.6300 ( -0.0637)
0.3128 0.0138 0.0002 - 0.6872 0.0209 0.0011
3 2 11/5 7/5 -0.6398 ( -0.0735)
0.3089 0.0139 0.0002 - 0.6911 0.0193 0.0005
4 2 11/5 8/6 -0.6588 ( -0.0926)
0.3059 0.0134 0.0001 - 0.6941 0.0195 0.0004
• 5 2 11/9 8/2 -0.6688 ( -0.1025)
0.3039 0.0128 0.0002 - 0.6961 0.0169 0.0012

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.