OTB I tried to count my losses in 36 games after hitting. I get hit back 5 times and figured that I was a small dog then so almost 3 losses and it is really hard to lose if I don't get hit..so I settled on 4 losses in 36 games after hitting.
I am well ahead in the race if I don't hit and it seems my opp needs a rather large double at some point and also may often waste a turn coming around, making it quite unlikely that he can win. However, 66 and 55 right away are awesome for him, and it is possible that I roll small a few times and waste a turn. I clearly saw that my opp should win this more than 4/36 of the time so I hit, having nothing further to think about.
Of course I was hit back with an 8 and then lost at the end noting my opp's last two rolls in the bearoff were 11 gaining a roll and 66 not even allowing me a last shake.
I posted the position bcuz some decent players were still discussing my play and decision to hit when I returned to the board after going to the men's room. Yes, I usually win if I don't hit, but I win 5% more often if I do.
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| XGID=-BBB------a---A-------bcb-:0:0:1:24:6:8:1:9:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 24 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 14/10* 10/8 | eq: +0.7749 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 14/8 | eq: +0.6726 (-0.1023) | |||
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| 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 46746902 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2