OTB I realized that my GV is quite elevated here. I also realized human tendancy to cash these too soon. I'm not very likely to win a G, but I am clearly less likely to lose, noting my opp's buried spares. Of course, my opp has cube vig if he hits me, but I may also be able to cube him if I enter quickly once his bearoff starts.
I figured this was TG (a fact that wasn't obvious to some I should this to) and that if it wasn't TG it had to be borderline and by playing on, my opp could possibly make a cube error if I get hit (many players double too soon AtS when they can't win a G) or just perhaps my opp can muck up the decision to stay or go when I don't blot (one never knows). All that being noted, I still figured that I had to be slightly TG. Anyhow I was hit and cubed maybe just a bit too early and lost easily.
                     |
| ||||
| XGID=-aFC---------------bbbbcc-:0:0:1:00:3:0:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 91.242% (G:13.724% B:0.334%) | 90.968% (G:28.603% B:1.896%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 8.758% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 9.032% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +1.0757 | +2.4100 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +1.0768 | ±0.0014 (+1.0755..+1.0782) |
| Double/Take: | +2.1211 (+1.0443) | ±0.0015 (+2.1196..+2.1226) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.0000 (-0.0768) | |
| Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass | ||
| Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 6.9% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 46746902 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
For money this is a close decision, but it is best to cash.
  |
| ||||
| XGID=-aFC---------------bbbbcc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 91.210% (G:13.810% B:0.111%) | 91.206% (G:13.771% B:0.148%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 8.790% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 8.794% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.9634 | +1.9266 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.9916 (-0.0084) | ±0.0012 (+0.9904..+0.9928) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.8598 (+0.8598) | ±0.0026 (+1.8571..+1.8624) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 46746902 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02