Two positions, with rollout results, are posted below. One is the original, and the other serves a dual purpose. It shows the position after the best play, and also the cube action if White is silly enough to fan after being hit.
Why is hitting the best play by such a huge margin? Four reasons: (1) Hitting wins the most games, by at least 2%, (2) Hitting wins the most gammons, by at least 2%, (3) Hitting loses the fewest gammons, by at least 0.8% and (4) White might fan if Blue hits. If Blue does not hit, White never fans.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 131 | | 9 point match | pip: 128
score: 5
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aA-B-E-C---bCb-ac-d----bA:0:0:1:52:5:5:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 6/1* | eq: -0.117 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.53% (G:15.56% B:0.65%)
52.47% (G:18.35% B:1.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.022 (-0.139...-0.095) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/8 | eq: -0.255 (-0.138) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.54% (G:13.32% B:0.71%)
54.46% (G:19.16% B:0.81%) | Conf.: ± 0.023 (-0.278...-0.232) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 6/4 | eq: -0.263 (-0.146) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.59% (G:13.19% B:0.72%)
54.41% (G:21.86% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.283...-0.243) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/18 | eq: -0.358 (-0.241) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.02% (G:12.30% B:0.88%)
54.98% (G:22.95% B:0.64%) | Conf.: ± 0.025 (-0.383...-0.333) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 13/11 | eq: -0.384 (-0.267) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.71% (G:13.19% B:0.99%)
56.29% (G:24.32% B:0.75%) | Conf.: ± 0.023 (-0.407...-0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| |
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
After White makes the serious mistake of fanning, game over. Blue should double and White has a big pass, but betcha lotsa fokes out there would take it. Blue cleans up all blots in his board with 17 numbers: all 11 aces and 6 others (66 44 65 54). Additionally, Blue's 55 and 33 give him a formidable four-and-a-half-point board.
 
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 132 | | 9 point match | pip: 121
score: 5
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aAA-B-D-C---bCb-ac-d---Ab-:0:0:1:00:5:5:0:9:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64.08% (G:29.52% B:0.80%) | 64.35% (G:29.29% B:0.96%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.92% (G:9.20% B:0.50%) | 35.65% (G:9.85% B:0.64%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.564 | +1.578 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.761 (-0.239) | ±0.015 (+0.747..+0.776) |
| Double/Take: | +1.151 (+0.151) | ±0.023 (+1.127..+1.174) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 9 minutes 28 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2