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Endgames are easy #2

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 12 March 2012, at 8:09 p.m.

In Response To: Endgames are easy #2 (neilkaz)

I think gammons are rare enough that it's not too good here. Also, if white doesn't hit next roll she'll be running off the gammon, so I only hove to think about the shot leaving numbers (20 if I counted right) and the possibility of hitting when a shot is left (basically 11/36) Which gives White a 20/36 x 11/36 chance *to hit* - doing the approximation in my head that's about 1/3 X 1/2 or about a 1/6th chance.

But that's not the end of the story - if hit, blue will still be about 40 to 50% to win since he'll have 7 or 8 checkers off. So, White's winning chances are more like 1/12 or roughly 8%, which is much less than the 15.5% ME she'll have if she passes. Seems like a double pass on this basis.

Messages In This Thread

• Endgames are easy #2
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 6:19 p.m.
  • Endgames are easy #2
    Stick -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 6:54 p.m.
    • Endgames are easy #2
      leemo -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 4:52 a.m.
    • Endgames are easy #2
      rambiz -- Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 4:22 p.m.
  • Endgames are easy #2
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 8:26 p.m.
  • Endgames are easy #2
    Benf -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 5:39 a.m.
    • Endgames are easy #2
      neilkaz -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 3:04 p.m.
      • Endgames are easy #2
        David Levy -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 3:23 p.m.
      • Endgames are easy #2
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 8:40 p.m.
  • OTB and RO's
    neilkaz -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 4:51 p.m.
    • OTB and RO's
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 8:27 p.m.
      • OTB and RO's
        neilkaz -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 10:33 p.m.
  • Endgames are easy #2
    ah_clem -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 8:09 p.m.