I spent a minute near the end of my lecture in NM mentioning this score as a common source of cube errors. The error is that after taking and recubing, the trailer hasn't won the match. Time and time again, I see intermediates making this sort of mistake.
Illustrating:
Trailing 4a 2a, instead of 5a 2a, taking has a little more risk from take/lose, but much more gain from take/redouble/win. At 4a 2a taking risks 2.8% more match equity, but gains 65.6% more match equity. Thus, Trailer has a much lower take point trailing 4a 2a.
| Trail 5a 2a, Leader Doubles, Trailer can redouble | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass | -> | 5a 1a Cr | -> | 15.8% |
| Take/Lose | -> | 5a 0a | -> | 0% |
| Take/Win | -> | 1a 2a Cr | -> | 67.7% |
Risk = 15.8% - 0% = 15.8%
Gain = 67.7% - 15.8% = 51.9%
R/R+G) = 15.8%/67.7% -> Takepoint = 23.34%
| Trail 4a 2a, Leader Doubles, Trailer can redouble | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass | -> | 4a 1a Cr | -> | 18.6% |
| Take/Lose | -> | 4a 0a | -> | 0% |
| Take/Win | -> | 0a 2a Cr | -> | 100% |
Risk = 18.6% - 0% = 18.6%
Gain = 100% - 18.6% = 81.4%
R/R+G) = 18.6%/100% -> Takepoint = 18.6%
Below, Blue wins 81.3%. Close take trailing 4a 2a (passing gives up 0.2% match equity), huge drop trailing 5a 2a (taking gives up 3.2% match equity).
| White | 47 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
                  | |||
| Blue | 40 | ||
| Position ID: NgYAQLZtAAAAAA Match ID: cAmgABAAGAAE | |||