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my RO result

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 5:09 a.m.

In Response To: my RO result (pontiac)

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Pontiac: I changed [the seed] to randomly, ... Great! Pontiac: ...but I dont know how to compile them. I have never done the calculations that Nack does to “aggregate” several rollouts, but I believe there are several approaches. One is to create a weighted average. Nack’s 15552 trials are 12 times as many as your 1296, so his results are weighted 12 times more than yours.

D(agg) = [12 * D(Nack) + 1 * D(Pontiac)] / 13 = [12 * 0 + 1 * 0] / 13 = 0

S(agg) = [12 * S(Nack) + 1 * S(Pontiac)] / 13 = [12 * 8 + 1 * 9] / 13 = 8.07692307692308 = 8 or 8.1

Trials = 15,552 + 1,296 = 16,848 = 16k

The aggregate nacbrac (listed third) is thus: 21S-65R-52 [D S8 H34 Z55] "<=15*5 Nack 21S-65R-52 [D S9] "<=1 Pontiac 21S-65R-52 [D S8 H34 Z55] "<16*5a — Nack 15k + Pontiac 1k Explanation of nacbracs I have added the letter “a” to indicate that the final nacbrac is an aggregate. Note that the 5k results are simply carried over from Nack’s rollout, since they were not included in yours. Mike

Messages In This Thread

• 3rd roll. 21S-65R-52 ?
  pontiac -- Saturday, 10 March 2012, at 1:58 p.m.
  • 3rd roll. 21S-65R-52 ?
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 10 March 2012, at 10:03 p.m.
  • 3rd roll. 21S-65R-52 ?
    Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 5:04 a.m.
  • 3rd roll. 21S-65R-52 ?
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 9:08 a.m.
    • response to Nack
      pontiac -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 8:11 p.m.
      • response to Nack
        Nack Ballard -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 4:36 p.m.
        • thanks Tim and Nack
          pontiac -- Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 1:13 a.m.
          • OTOH
            Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 1:23 a.m.
  • my RO result
    pontiac -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 8:16 p.m.
    • 3rd move
      pontiac -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 8:18 p.m.
      • 3rd move
        Michael Nielsen -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 9:00 p.m.
    • my RO result
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 2:20 p.m.
    • 21S-65R-52, longer rollout
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 8:35 p.m.
    • my RO result
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 9:09 p.m.
      • my RO result
        Taper_Mike -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 9:45 p.m.
      • my RO result
        pontiac -- Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 1:04 a.m.
        • my RO result
          Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 5:09 a.m.