The rollout favors 16/10. However, if we cover White's 1pt, then 16/10 seems to be too bold.
If I recall correctly, this wasn't a decision I faced; it was a move that the bot made that I found somewhat surprising so I recorded it for further examination.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 93 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 124
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----BBCbC--B-B--A--f-d-ba-:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/10 6/3 | eq: +0.237 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.25% (G:6.49% B:0.28%)
44.75% (G:6.46% B:0.11%) | Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.223...+0.251)
Duration: 51 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/10 8/5 | eq: +0.217 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.56% (G:6.29% B:0.25%)
45.44% (G:5.58% B:0.07%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.205...+0.229)
Duration: 32 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 16/13 8/2 | eq: +0.152 (-0.085) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.04% (G:5.33% B:0.21%)
46.96% (G:3.75% B:0.07%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.140...+0.164)
Duration: 36 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 8/2 5/2 | eq: +0.146 (-0.091) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.64% (G:7.41% B:0.36%)
47.36% (G:5.84% B:0.10%) | Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.132...+0.160)
Duration: 31 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 8/2 6/3 | eq: +0.134 (-0.103) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.06% (G:7.73% B:0.32%)
46.94% (G:7.26% B:0.20%) | Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.120...+0.148)
Duration: 34 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 11/8 11/5 | eq: +0.053 (-0.184) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.70% (G:5.65% B:0.26%)
50.30% (G:4.16% B:0.07%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.041...+0.065)
Duration: 41 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant:
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 88 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 124
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----BBCbC--B-B--A--e-d-bb-:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/13 8/2 | eq: +0.062 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.03% (G:5.05% B:0.15%)
48.97% (G:4.39% B:0.07%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.049...+0.075)
Duration: 4 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/10 8/5 | eq: -0.015 (-0.076) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.54% (G:6.30% B:0.22%)
50.46% (G:9.81% B:0.09%) | Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.029...-0.001)
Duration: 3 minutes 01 second |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 16/10 6/3 | eq: -0.015 (-0.077) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.34% (G:6.13% B:0.21%)
50.66% (G:11.70% B:0.16%) | Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.030...0.000)
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| |
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply.
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21