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Paul Money, on playing on

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 14 March 2012, at 7:26 p.m.

In Response To: Paul Money, on playing on (Timothy Chow)

Well, I thought the position was too good, and the bot agrees with me. My rule of thumb is to play on if I will still have a cash next turn and there are gammon possibilities (I didn't make this up, I think I got it from Robertie)

Arguing for Paul's position, if I'm just trying to minimize my total error, then cashing would make sense if the error due to the premature cash was lower than the sum of the errors going forward. But I see two flaws in this logic: one is that my opponent will probably make errors too and this should roughly cancel out. The other is that I really should be concerned about error *rate* rather than total error and if these errors are spread out over many moves I'll have a lower rate than making a whopper now.

That said, I think he has a point, he's just provided a terrible example - in the posted position, it's a .12 error to cash. That's a lot of equity to give up based on the fear of possibly playing difficult positions, especially since it's often a cash in a turn or two anyway. If he'd chosen an example with, say, a .03 error to cash then I'd go along with saying it's a practical double.

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