I don't like the results of the first rollout. Whether it's due to the score or due to the weak settings of your rollout or more likely a combination of both I think at a normal score 23/18 is definitely correct. Below is a stronger rollout, 4 ply/XGR+ and its 3 ply/XGR same seed counterpart for money. The stronger rollout shows that 23/18 performs better (and the hitting play worse as it should) with higher settings.
I doubt anyone looked at this position and thought "Well .. due to the score I'd play this but at an even score I'd play that." I think it's much more useful to look at problems like this at normal scores as to not skew our view of how to play similar themed positions. I understand that wasn't the problem you were faced with OtB but...
        
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 146 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 177
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=--aa-BD-B---cC--bb-bbBbB--:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 | | Blue to play 32 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/3* | eq: -0.164 | | Player:
Opponent: | 40.68% (G:10.13% B:0.46%)
59.32% (G:23.42% B:1.44%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.175...-0.153) - [59.2%]
Duration: 3 hours 57 minutes |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 23/18 | eq: -0.165 (-0.002) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.73% (G:9.69% B:0.44%)
60.27% (G:20.86% B:0.90%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.175...-0.156) - [40.8%]
Duration: 3 hours 56 minutes |
| | | 1 972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66454268
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
|
|
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 146 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 177
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=--aa-BD-B---cC--bb-bbBbB--:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 | | Blue to play 32 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/3* | eq: -0.156 | | Player:
Opponent: | 40.49% (G:10.13% B:0.49%)
59.51% (G:22.88% B:1.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.172...-0.139) - [87.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 26 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 23/18 | eq: -0.168 (-0.012) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.69% (G:9.59% B:0.40%)
60.31% (G:20.58% B:0.80%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.180...-0.155) - [13.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 03 seconds |
| | | 1 972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66454268
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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