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Rollout: Pointless double?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 15 March 2012, at 11:36 p.m.

In Response To: Pointless double? (Timothy Chow)

I didn't roll this out for money but XGR+ says it's ND/T for money. OTB I failed to double here. It still surprises me how much difference there can be between 6a5a and money.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 169
7 point match
pip: 147
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa--aEAC-A-cD--ac-e----A-:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 63.01% (G: 21.58% B: 1.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.99% (G: 8.92% B: 0.58%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.25% (G: 22.11% B: 1.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.75% (G: 8.71% B: 0.84%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.416
Double:+0.937
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.674 (-0.042)
Double/Take:+0.716
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.284)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.658...+0.690)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.696...+0.737)
Double Decision confidence: 99.9%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 day 14 hours 13 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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