The distribution hardly ever matters in these situations. I would recommend again just making the better point. You will, as with almost any rule, be able to pull an exception or two, but even with these you will notice that when making the inferior point is correct it's by a marginal amount at best. It reminds me of cubing at 3a 6a or more for the away player when there's still any sort of contact (gammons) left in the position for the trailer, just don't do it. One in a million you'll find a window, otherwise you're just being a donkey.
FWIW a longer rollout of your exception followed by a play that just came up today when I was playing. The two positions on the surface seemed to have something in common so I thought there may be a link to the rare case when making the inferior point might be correct. Ignore the best play in the second rollout obviously.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-aa---EACA--cC--bc-e----B-:0:0:1:23:0:0:1:0:10 | | Blue to play 23 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 7/4 6/4 | eq: +0.009 | | Player:
Opponent: | 49.84% (G:16.07% B:0.70%)
50.16% (G:14.53% B:0.79%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.004...+0.013) - [98.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 8/5 7/5 | eq: +0.001 (-0.008) | | Player:
Opponent: | 49.46% (G:16.52% B:0.69%)
50.54% (G:14.80% B:0.85%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.004...+0.006) - [1.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes |
| | | 1 12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 29632061
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
 
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 153 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
| | XGID=-aa---EACA--dC-a-b-bb-b-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 | | Blue to play 32 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 8/5 7/5 | eq: -0.454 | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.42% (G:12.17% B:0.56%)
60.58% (G:20.59% B:1.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.462...-0.446) - [89.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 7/4 6/4 | eq: -0.461 (-0.007) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.13% (G:12.04% B:0.55%)
60.87% (G:20.57% B:1.49%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.469...-0.453) - [10.5%]
Duration: 59 minutes 53 seconds |
| | | 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 55353106
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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