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Daily Quiz 3/12: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 16 March 2012, at 1:58 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/12 (Daily Quiz)

This will be the last DQ XGR+ eval that I'll be posting for a while. Thank you to BenF for taking over the duties for the next week or two.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 104
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aABaBCC-A---bB----beb-b-A-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.XG Roller+13/7 6/3* eq: +0.496
Player:
Opponent:
66.65% (G:43.46% B:0.82%)
33.35% (G:14.96% B:2.98%)
2.XG Roller+24/15eq: +0.462 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
67.46% (G:34.86% B:0.75%)
32.54% (G:11.09% B:0.71%)
3.XG Roller+24/21 8/2eq: +0.394 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
64.93% (G:31.22% B:0.64%)
35.07% (G:9.46% B:0.44%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21


I should have kept calculating and, in particular, I should have tried to estimate gammons after estimating 10 or 11 out of 36 wins for White. Not disciplined enough in my thinking.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 126
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aCBBCCaA----c------ccb--bA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 71.36% (G: 34.07% B: 0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.64% (G: 3.36% B: 0.08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.737
Redouble:+1.428
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.888 (-0.112)
Redouble/Take:+1.219 (+0.219)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----ECC---dBa--c-d--bAA-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.XG Roller+24/21 23/21eq: +0.075
Player:
Opponent:
51.22% (G:10.28% B:0.23%)
48.78% (G:6.45% B:0.23%)
2.XG Roller+8/5 7/5eq: +0.027 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
51.01% (G:15.57% B:0.58%)
48.99% (G:14.78% B:0.65%)
3.XG Roller+7/4 6/4eq: +0.000 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
50.41% (G:14.70% B:0.55%)
49.59% (G:14.81% B:0.62%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Variant (note that XGR+ thinks that making the 4pt and making the 5pt are close):





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----ECC---eB---c-d--bAA-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.XG Roller+24/21 23/21eq: +0.135
Player:
Opponent:
52.76% (G:11.00% B:0.22%)
47.24% (G:6.13% B:0.22%)
2.XG Roller+7/4 6/4eq: +0.098 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
52.57% (G:15.83% B:0.55%)
47.43% (G:12.46% B:0.53%)
3.XG Roller+8/5 7/5eq: +0.091 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
52.46% (G:15.81% B:0.53%)
47.54% (G:12.68% B:0.55%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Another variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 149
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----DDC---dBa--c-d--bAA-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.XG Roller+24/21 23/21eq: +0.087
Player:
Opponent:
51.57% (G:10.35% B:0.23%)
48.43% (G:6.63% B:0.23%)
2.XG Roller+8/5 7/5eq: +0.070 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
52.36% (G:15.85% B:0.63%)
47.64% (G:14.71% B:0.61%)
3.XG Roller+7/4 6/4eq: +0.047 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
51.79% (G:14.93% B:0.57%)
48.21% (G:14.97% B:0.60%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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