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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Saturday, 17 March 2012, at 2:34 p.m.

In Response To: Variations on a Blitz (Paul Weaver)

Position 1pt.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 139
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 146
score: 0

Blue is shimohei
XGID=bB----CBB--AcC---c-c--bBb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.52% (G:31.71% B:0.52%) 59.47% (G:32.57% B:0.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.48% (G:12.15% B:0.60%) 40.53% (G:12.26% B:0.65%)
Cubeless Equities +0.385 +0.781
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.539±0.020 (+0.518..+0.559)
Double/Take:+0.477 (-0.062)±0.024 (+0.453..+0.500)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.461)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.6%
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Position 2pt.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 139
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is shimohei
XGID=b-B---CBB--AcC---c-c--bBb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.37% (G:31.18% B:0.75%) 63.51% (G:32.53% B:0.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.63% (G:10.85% B:0.58%) 36.49% (G:11.12% B:0.63%)
Cubeless Equities +0.472 +0.971
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.650 (-0.033)±0.019 (+0.632..+0.669)
Double/Take:+0.683±0.024 (+0.659..+0.707)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.317)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:98.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 19 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Position 3pt.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 139
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is shimohei
XGID=b--B--CBB--AcC---c-c--bBb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.50% (G:28.94% B:0.97%) 66.57% (G:30.98% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.50% (G:9.40% B:0.37%) 33.43% (G:9.87% B:0.46%)
Cubeless Equities +0.531 +1.095
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.748 (-0.090)±0.015 (+0.733..+0.763)
Double/Take:+0.838±0.024 (+0.815..+0.862)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.162)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Position 4pt.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 139
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is shimohei
XGID=b---B-CBB--AcC---c-c--bBb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.09% (G:29.55% B:1.01%) 70.96% (G:31.72% B:0.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.91% (G:8.00% B:0.29%) 29.04% (G:8.42% B:0.35%)
Cubeless Equities +0.644 +1.317
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.893 (-0.107)±0.013 (+0.880..+0.906)
Double/Take:+1.084 (+0.084)±0.024 (+1.060..+1.107)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Position 5pt.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 139
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is shimohei
XGID=b----BCBB--AcC---c-c--bBb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.87% (G:27.44% B:0.98%) 69.71% (G:29.11% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.13% (G:8.60% B:0.33%) 30.29% (G:8.91% B:0.36%)
Cubeless Equities +0.592 +1.204
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.858 (-0.120)±0.003 (+0.855..+0.861)
Double/Take:+0.978±0.005 (+0.973..+0.983)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.022)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

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