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Daily Quiz 3/13

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Saturday, 17 March 2012, at 11:39 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/13 (Daily Quiz)

In position 1 blue has 2 goals:

Goal 1: Throw 3,5 or D4 (should he cover with 42 or D2?)

Goal 2: Escape the backchecker with a 5

White also has 2 goals:

Goal 1: Enter with a 1 or hopefully a 2

Goal 2: Escape the backchecker with a 6 or a 16.

In positions where both sides have the same chance of reaching their first goal the player on roll usualy has a double, The other player usualy has a Take.

Here the blue goal has a chance of about 3/4, the white goal has a chance of about a third.

This is a rather big difference. Besides that the second goals of both players are equal or worse for white.

I think it is a clear double/pass.

I estimate the equity: 0,85 wins 0,17 gammons -0,15 loss -0,08 gammons lost = 0,79

Position 2:

The race here is 169-159. So after the move blue is just a little behind.

The hitting play: b/23 13x9 ... gives at least 2 blots without forward structure.

I would play for the asset of the 4-point: b/23 6/4(2) 10/8.

Position 3:

After the hit bx22 we are in a proto-backgame situation in which we can play rather pure for important assets.

I am a bit in doubt between the assets of the 11-point or the barpoint. The 11-point is the an-sich better asset, but the bar-point gives a better connection.

I guess the two plays are close, I play: bx22 21/18(2) 14x11.

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