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Do you remember this position?

Posted By: rambiz
Date: Sunday, 18 March 2012, at 1:40 a.m.

In Response To: Do you remember this position? (Daniel Murphy)

Thank you for your contribution Daniel.
Blue wins 1818/100k games on 2 or 4 according to the rollout. So Blue's share of such games is about 1818/(1818+4273+274)~%28.5 , which is very close to your estimate of 30% (How exactly do you arrive at this figure, please?).
I am not sure how to factor all these information (educated guesstimates) into a play-on reward-risk ratio, yet. To be specific I don't know, where to put Blues 2 point wins. Shall I add them to his reward or shall I subtract them from his risk!!?
Finally I want to emphasize, that OTB, we still have to work out how many gammons Blue will win out of this position, if he plays on? Rollout says about %13 .

Messages In This Thread

• Do you remember this position?
  rambiz -- Friday, 16 March 2012, at 9:47 p.m.
  • Do you remember this position?
    Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 16 March 2012, at 10:01 p.m.
    • Do you remember this position?
      rambiz -- Saturday, 17 March 2012, at 7:29 p.m.
      • Do you remember this position?
        Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 17 March 2012, at 10:11 p.m.
        • Do you remember this position?
          rambiz -- Sunday, 18 March 2012, at 1:40 a.m.
          • Do you remember this position?
            Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 18 March 2012, at 1:50 a.m.
            • A Somehow Satisfactory Solution
              rambiz -- Sunday, 18 March 2012, at 1:50 p.m.
  • Do you remember this position?
    lenny -- Saturday, 17 March 2012, at 3:21 a.m.
    • Do you remember this position?
      rambiz -- Saturday, 17 March 2012, at 10:21 a.m.