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What are blue's winning chances and what's his game-plan?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 19 March 2012, at 4:36 p.m.

In Response To: What are blue's winning chances and what's his game-plan? (Snua)

I seem to recall that three consecutive anchors gives you a slight edge in GWC, something on the order of 50 to 60%. (don't hold me too tightly to this - obviously the position of the other 24 checkers matters alot too.) So I'm going to say that this is in the same ballpark. Let's say 58.3%, just for the sake of extraneous precision.

The game plan is probably to hold three anchors and try to contain the checkers that are hit, so I'd play bar/21 20/18*. Hopefully, white will enter with a 2 and recirculate my poorly placed blot there.

Am I sure about this? Yes, at about the ten percent confidence level. (c:

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