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Cleveland #1

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 24 March 2012, at 4:46 p.m.

In Response To: Cleveland #1 (Jason Lee)

Hitting gains wins whenever White misses but not many wins, I would think, with 6 off already. The other half of the problem is whether hitting wins enough more gammons to make hitting right. White would need 20 pips to get off the gammon, or 3 rolls on average. So it seems right to ask what Blue's chance is of bearing off in 3 rolls. Not much, with 9 checkers still on the board. I'd hit if Blue had only 7 checkers left -- for some chance of being off in 2 and a greater chance of being off in three or four rolls -- or none, one, two or three checkers off. But I'd play 16/8 here.

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