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Answer : Don't click before think the quiz :-)
Posted By: kinchan In Response To: 2012 Osaka Open Quiz (Taper_Mike)
Date: Monday, 26 March 2012, at 1:05 p.m.
First of all,
Great, special, ultra, many thank you to Mike !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm very happy.
BTW
Result of the Osaka open.
About 40 answers.
Average score is about 5.
Winner score is 8.
Problem 1
5/3 4/3
For 33 doublet.
Problem 2
15/16 6/4
For 33 or better doublet.
Problem 3
You have to take risk( 4 points odd number) for gammon, so you have to play 4/3 2/off.
It is not this problem's essential, I think.
(a) If you played 4/3 2/off, 4 points are 5 checkers( odd number), and you will leave a shot immediately if next roll 44,55,66.
It means 3/36 leave a shot.
(b) If you played 4/3 4/2, 4 points are 4 checkers( even number ), and if next roll 43, 53, 63.
(1) 11,33,12,24,25,26, total 11 safety numbers.
(2) So, another 25 numbers leave a shot.
It means, (6/36) x (25/36) = about ( 4.2 /36 )
And later roll more dangerless than (a)
You will leave shot chance is (b) more than (a) !!!
So, this problem essentail is that you have to play 4/3 2/off for your safety, I think.
1. XG Roller++ 4/3 2/Off eq:+1.193
Player: 90.80% (G:42.67% B:5.17%)
Opponent: 9.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2. XG Roller++ 4/3 4/2 eq:+1.084 (-0.110)
Player: 88.72% (G:37.25% B:3.94%)
Opponent: 11.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3. XG Roller++ 3/Off eq:+0.184 (-1.009)
Player: 55.77% (G:21.01% B:2.41%)
Opponent: 44.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4. XG Roller++ 4/2 3/2 eq:+0.052 (-1.141)
Player: 51.60% (G:17.62% B:1.59%)
Opponent: 48.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Problem 4
My guess '3 points stacks -> hit and make 2 points' is most important things. and if opponent dance , you can redouble.
1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/5 3/2*(2) eq:+0.730
Player: 52.78% (G:32.50% B:5.84%)
Opponent: 47.22% (G:12.91% B:1.47%)
Confidence: }0.014 (+0.716..+0.744) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10.7 seconds
2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/5 3/2* 2/1* eq:+0.647 (-0.084)
Player: 48.82% (G:33.21% B:5.47%)
Opponent: 51.18% (G:17.48% B:2.72%)
Confidence: }0.015 (+0.632..+0.661) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10.7 seconds
3. Rollout¹ Bar/23* 6/5 3/2* eq:+0.558 (-0.172)
Player: 48.07% (G:29.24% B:6.89%)
Opponent: 51.93% (G:16.35% B:2.76%)
Confidence: }0.014 (+0.544..+0.572) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12.2 seconds
4. Rollout¹ Bar/23* 3/2*(2) eq:+0.452 (-0.278)
Player: 45.91% (G:27.39% B:7.10%)
Opponent: 54.09% (G:16.29% B:2.30%)
Confidence: }0.014 (+0.438..+0.466) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13.3 seconds
5. Rollout¹ Bar/23* 24/23 6/5 eq:+0.438 (-0.292)
Player: 45.90% (G:22.59% B:3.66%)
Opponent: 54.10% (G:16.03% B:1.63%)
Confidence: }0.013 (+0.425..+0.451) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11.1 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Problem 5
Yes, 4 and 5 duplication.
1. XG Roller++ 21/15 17/14 eq:+0.094
Player: 54.70% (G:16.06% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 45.30% (G:11.49% B:0.37%)
2. XG Roller++ 21/18 21/15 eq:-0.014 (-0.108)
Player: 49.31% (G:12.11% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 50.69% (G:15.63% B:0.56%)
3. XG Roller++ 21/12 eq:-0.024 (-0.118)
Player: 48.82% (G:12.35% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 51.18% (G:13.54% B:0.42%)
4. XG Roller++ 17/8 eq:-0.033 (-0.127)
Player: 48.34% (G:10.78% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 51.66% (G:8.73% B:0.20%)
5. XG Roller++ 21/18 17/11 eq:-0.050 (-0.144)
Player: 47.50% (G:12.37% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 52.50% (G:15.43% B:0.48%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Problem 6
In this match score, you can redouble if you have gammon chance and volatility, whether you are under disadvantage.
So you can adventure play.
(1) Opponent leave a blot in his inner
(2) 3 and 5 duplication
8/4 6/5.
Ummmmmm,,, my comment no good.......... :-)
1. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/5 eq:+0.488
Player: 50.12% (G:13.52% B:1.43%)
Opponent: 49.88% (G:25.44% B:1.18%)
Confidence: }0.017 (+0.471..+0.505) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17.1 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 20/16 8/7 eq:+0.394 (-0.093)
Player: 48.13% (G:11.80% B:1.15%)
Opponent: 51.87% (G:26.79% B:1.30%)
Confidence: }0.018 (+0.377..+0.412) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16.8 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 22/21 8/4 eq:+0.362 (-0.126)
Player: 46.90% (G:12.18% B:1.20%)
Opponent: 53.10% (G:23.44% B:0.95%)
Confidence: }0.016 (+0.346..+0.378) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16.8 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/4 eq:+0.331 (-0.157)
Player: 45.95% (G:11.97% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 54.05% (G:22.74% B:0.88%)
Confidence: }0.016 (+0.315..+0.347) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16.8 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/7 eq:+0.327 (-0.161)
Player: 46.81% (G:11.44% B:1.14%)
Opponent: 53.19% (G:28.42% B:1.84%)
Confidence: }0.017 (+0.309..+0.344) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20.3 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Problem 7
My guess.....
(1)You have many weapon now,so you have to attack !!
(2)Kill opponent 6 ???
1. Rollout¹ 9/1* eq:+0.326
Player: 56.65% (G:19.62% B:0.85%)
Opponent: 43.35% (G:12.24% B:0.21%)
Confidence: }0.018 (+0.308..+0.344) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11.3 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 9/3 6/4 eq:+0.124 (-0.202)
Player: 52.60% (G:15.41% B:0.73%)
Opponent: 47.40% (G:12.17% B:0.17%)
Confidence: }0.018 (+0.106..+0.142) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10.6 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 21/15 6/4 eq:+0.120 (-0.206)
Player: 52.73% (G:14.76% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 47.27% (G:10.40% B:0.16%)
Confidence: }0.017 (+0.103..+0.136) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10.9 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq:+0.094 (-0.232)
Player: 51.89% (G:13.75% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 48.11% (G:9.50% B:0.12%)
Confidence: }0.017 (+0.077..+0.111) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11.3 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 21/15 8/6 eq:-0.004 (-0.330)
Player: 50.07% (G:14.26% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 49.93% (G:13.08% B:0.21%)
Confidence: }0.018 (-0.022..+0.014) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10.4 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
Problem 8
Answer is fun and exciting.
That is the reason for the problem.:-)
May be, if you check all numbers step by step, you can understand,,, I think. :-)
1. Rollout¹ 21/17 13/1 eq:+0.142
Player: 49.04% (G:11.22% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 50.96% (G:6.35% B:0.07%)
Confidence: }0.009 (+0.133..+0.151) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2.6 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 21/5 eq:+0.046 (-0.096)
Player: 45.65% (G:7.56% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 54.35% (G:1.56% B:0.02%)
Confidence: }0.009 (+0.037..+0.055) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.7 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/1 eq:+0.030 (-0.112)
Player: 44.43% (G:7.58% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 55.57% (G:1.50% B:0.01%)
Confidence: }0.009 (+0.021..+0.039) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.5 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 21/17 13/9 13/5 eq:+0.014 (-0.128)
Player: 44.26% (G:9.40% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 55.74% (G:4.06% B:0.04%)
Confidence: }0.008 (+0.006..+0.023) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.6 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 21/13(2) eq:-0.774 (-0.916)
Player: 9.91% (G:0.46% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 90.09% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Confidence: }0.003 (-0.777..-0.771) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.5 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
Problem 9
Answer is 9/1*(2) !!!!!
If DMP, may be 13/5(2) is better than 9/1*(2).
But now is gammon go time !!!
After 9/1*(2), opponent's next numbers with 1 or 6, he can not clear 18 points and 4 points blots, If so, you can attack with 15 checkers !!! Obviously, 9/1*(2) will get more gammon than 13/5(2).
This problem really impressed me, BackGammon is amazing !!!!!
Problem 10
I used Kit Woolsey Match Equity Table.
In money game, of cource, I will stay. But I have to think MWC in this problem.
If I escape, 1 away - 3 away post crawford, same as 1 away - 2 away crawford, I think. It's 70% MWC.
(a) 50% x ( 5/36 ) -> If opponent rolled 22 or better doublet.
(b) 50% x ( 31/36 ) x ( 33/36 ) -> I could not rolled 44 or better doublet.
(3) 70% x ( 31/36 ) x ( 3 /36 ) -> I rolled 44 or better doublet.
1 min passing...
(a) + (b) + (c) = ,,, about 51.4%
Ok,,, next,,,,
If I will stay.
How about lose match immediately ?
(a) 5/36 -> If opponent rolled 22 or better doublet.
(b) ( 20/36 ) x ( 2/36) -> If I rolled 23.
(c) ( 1/36 ) x ( 13/36) -> If opponent rolled 11 and I could not escape opponent inner board.
(d) If I got hit, but lose backgammon. ???
About 7/36 or so, I lose match immediately,,, OK,OK,, next.....
2 mins passing...
and
Ummmmmm.....
If I got hit. how about winning chance ??? If I got hit. how about gammon save ??? If I got hit, how about I lose gammon ??? If I got hit, how about I lose backgammon ???
I cannot calculate(or guess) above.............
5 mins passing.....
And, and, and,,,1 hour passing.... I gave up :-)
If this problem is a real match, I will escape. Because I want to play one more game. I don't like lose immediately :-)
Thank you for reading.
kinchan( Yoshi )
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