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since nobody reply I stopped RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 26 March 2012, at 4:47 p.m.

In Response To: since nobody reply I stopped RO (pontiac)

13/12* 13/10 gives 14/36 return hits instead of 13/36; after a miss gives 16/36 ways to safety both blots instead of 18/36, but a couple of additional numbers to make the 4 point with numbers that don't safety both blots (15/36 pointmakers either way, but count how many Blue should actually point with), and possibly fewer hits on White's second turn (because of where Blue leaves the one remaining blot).

But the overriding difference between 13/10 13/12* and 13/12*/9 may very well be that 13/12*/9 doesn't "duplicate" 2's -- it turns 2-2 from a nonhitting number return into a devastating return that hits twice! The swing on 2-2 alone is worth about +1.0913 / 36 = 0.030 equity in favor of 13/12*/9 according to Gnubg 4-ply evaluation.

All counting subject to Pottle revision.

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