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Daily Quiz 3/19 - Cleveland Positions
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/19 - Cleveland Positions (Daily Quiz)
Date: Tuesday, 27 March 2012, at 2:58 p.m.
Daily Quiz 19 march
number 1:
With this enormous race-deficit 99% of all blue wins have to come from hitting a white checker.
Blue has the choice of hitting now with 13x6 (direct risk) or hopefully later with 13/8 10/8 (no risk) or 17/10 (indirect risk).
Lets start with the risk-free candidate (13/8 10/8), the problem with this move is that white can reduce the hitchance to indirect with every 3 or 4 combined with a 2 to 6. Only D1 garantees blue of a direct shot.
In the second option 17/10, white will, in most variations, stay put on the 6-point. Blue can then pick and pass with 41,42,43 or point on white with D2 and D4. This compares to an indirect hit.
So when we compare candidate 1 and 2 the risk is very different: 0 versus 17%, but the reward is 21% hits vs. 23% hits. In both cases the hits might count for, say, 50% wins, so 10% vs. 11% wins.
The risk of candidate 3: 13x6 is 33%, the reward is about 47% covers (all nearly wins) of the overly 67%, also 33%. Let's say all in all white gets 40%, blue 60%
The real risk for blue is being gammoned, because he was already lost to begin with. The gammon-risk after a hit will be about 30%. This means a total of 13% gammons.
Let's list the candidates once more in this new-risk light:
C1: 0% Gammons lost. 10% wins = -0 +0,4 = +0,4 C2: 6% Gammons lost. 11% wins = -0,12 + 0,44 = +0,32 C3: 13% Gam. lost. 60% wins = -0,26 + 2,40 = +2,14.
(These numbers have the losing proposition (-2) as the starting point, so the +2,14 means that on average blue will gain 0,14 points.
Answer: 13x6.
Number 2:
When the chance of being hit runs into double direct numbers, here the chance of being hit after running is about 2/3 in the best running variation: 18/14 18/15, then a crunching board or waiting checkers become irrelevant, (blue's race-advantage is too high).
Paying later cannot become much costlier (is this correct english??), so I think blue should play 6/2 6/3, and hope for a double.
Answer: 6/2 6/3.
Number 3:
White has a big chance to cover the 4-blot. After covering we come in a situation where both sides have certain goals. White has twice a medium goal (2 numbers: 3 and 6), blue has one dificult goal and one medium goal.
Equal goals are generally a DT for the side on roll. Unequal goals (advantage for the roller) are DP for the side on roll.
So if white should cover, and blue fanned and the score was equal it would be DP for white.
Let's try to quantify each of the arguments in the previous sentence:
1. If white should cover.
31/36 true
2. Blue fanned.
25/36 true
3. Score equal
false: tend towards DP
There another more subtile fact to consider: After covering the only two numbers that have contact with the entry point are 3 and 6. This numbers are duplicated on the other side. Thus this tends to DT.
Answer: DT
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