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Daily Quiz 3/20

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Tuesday, 27 March 2012, at 3:18 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/20 (Daily Quiz)

Daily Quiz 20 march:

Number 1:

Doubling now kills the cube. For this to be right, blue only needs a small edge and the chance of a gammon need to be small (otherwise blue should play on for the undoubled gammon).

Blue is ahead overall, but the chance of a succesfull blitz is small since white's board is better, so the gammonchance is small.

Hitting the second checker, making the 5-point or escaping the last checker are market-losers. All doubles + 61,31,63,64 = 14/36 do one of these things.

Answer: DT

Number 2:

In a proto-backgame like this it's important to play for a good structure and not to waste checkers:

23/13(2).

Number 3:

There are 3 candidates:

a: 5x3 off

b: 5/2/off

c: 5x3 5x2

Hitchance:

a: 15/36

b: 12/36

c: 13/36

Gammonchance:

a: 32%

b: 24%

c: 28%

Winning chance with checker borne off:

7 off: 50%

8 off: 60%

The above numbers lead to the following calculation:

a: + 21/36 + 15/36 x 60% Gammons 32% x 21/36

b: + 24/36 + 12/36 x 60% Gammons 24% x 24/36

c: + 23/36 + 13/36 x 50% Gammons 28% x 23/36

a: 64% + 19% Gammon 17% - MEq 0,02

b: 71% + 16% Gammon 13% - MEq 0,03

c: 64% + 18% Gammon 18% - MEq 0

Answer: 5/2 off

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