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since nobody reply I stopped RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 27 March 2012, at 3:21 p.m.

In Response To: since nobody reply I stopped RO (pontiac)

only factor is not 2-2. It is only 1/36.

It's true there's no "only" factor but the swing on 2-2 is large. Assume Gnubg 4-ply eval is correct. If White hits twice with 2-2, Blue's equity is about -0.630. If 2-2 does not hit, Blue's equity is about +0.460. The difference is 0.630 + 0.460 = 1.090. Divide by 36 since 2-2 is only 1/36 of the rolls. 1.090/36 = +0.030 in favor of 13/12* 13/10. +0.030 is a lot from just one roll considering that the difference between 13/12* 13/10 and 13/12*/9 in your rollout is only +0.034.

Blue's equity (Gnubg 2-ply eval)
White's roll	13/12*	13/10 13/12*/9	In favor of 13/12* 13/10
22	+0.460	-0.629	+1.089 * 1 = +1.089
62	+0.504	-0.061	+0.565 * 2 = +1.130
61	+0.404	-0.086	+0.490 * 2 = +0.980
42	+0.477	-0.006	+0.483 * 2 = +0.966
21	+0.431	-0.018	+0.449 * 2 = +0.898
subtotal White doesn't/does hit			+5.063
65	+0.563	+0.542	+0.021 * 2 = +0.042
63	+0.563	+0.542	+0.021 * 2 = +0.042
53	+0.563	+0.542	+0.021 * 2 = +0.042
66	+0.563	+0.542	+0.021 * 1 = +0.021
55	+0.563	+0.542	+0.021 * 1 = +0.021
33	+0.563	+0.542	+0.021 * 1 = +0.021
subtotal White fans			+0.189
41	+0.445	+0.399	+0.046 * 2 = +0.092
44	+0.572	+0.540	+0.032 * 1 = +0.032
11	+0.370	+0.342	+0.028 * 1 = +0.028
subtotal White enters, can't hit after either play			+0.153
64	-0.311	-0.068	-0.243 * 2 = -0.486
54	-0.072	-0.340	+0.268 * 2 = +0.536
subtotal White hits after either play			+0.050
31	-0.033	+0.342	-0.375 * 2 = -0.750
43	-0.036	+0.350	-0.386 * 2 = -0.772
32	+0.008	+0.394	-0.386 * 2 = -0.772
52	-0.114	+0.387	-0.501 * 2 = -1.002
51	-0.075	+0.437	-0.512 * 2 = -1.024
subtotal White does/doesn't hit			-4.230
:
average White doesn't/does hit			+0.562
average White fans			+0.021
average White enters, can't hit after either play			+0.038
average White hits after either play			+0.012
average White does/doesn't hit			-0.432

So, some other features worth noting:

1. 13/10 13/12* is slightly better whenever White fans.

2. 13/10 13/12* is better when White enters without hitting after either play.

3. Blue is better off not being hit after 13/10 13/12* than not being hit after 13/12*/9.

4. 4/36 numbers, 4-6 and 4-5, enter and hit after either play. If White rolls 6-4 from the bar, Blue would rather have played 13/12*/9. If White rolls 5-4, Blue would rather have played 13/10 13/12*.

Messages In This Thread

• 3-1 play
  pontiac -- Saturday, 24 March 2012, at 8:17 a.m.
  • since nobody reply I stopped RO
    pontiac -- Monday, 26 March 2012, at 2:31 p.m.
    • since nobody reply I stopped RO
      BenF -- Monday, 26 March 2012, at 4:15 p.m.
    • since nobody reply I stopped RO
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 26 March 2012, at 4:47 p.m.
      • since nobody reply I stopped RO
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 26 March 2012, at 5:05 p.m.
        • In which Daniel makes me laugh aloud
          Sam Pottle -- Monday, 26 March 2012, at 9:33 p.m.
        • since nobody reply I stopped RO
          pontiac -- Tuesday, 27 March 2012, at 8:03 a.m.
          • since nobody reply I stopped RO
            Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 27 March 2012, at 3:21 p.m.
            • since nobody reply I stopped RO
              pontiac -- Wednesday, 28 March 2012, at 9:40 a.m.