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Partly Because PR is a Fat Dot

Posted By: mamabear
Date: Tuesday, 27 March 2012, at 6:21 p.m.

In Response To: My Ohio State BG Recap (long) (Bill Riles)

One reason that these anomalies of performance as measured by results occur is that none of us play exactly the same every tournament, or every day. Small things can make big differences in how finely tuned our game is. Within the game, we may be "well-booked" and have been playing often enough to keep the mental process tree active, or not. Outside the game, we may be in good general health, well-rested, not especially stressed about anything...or not. More line items can be added, but the take-away here is that our PR's (or some equivalent) are not mathematical points on a graph, but instead are large, fat, fuzzy dots with a "You are Here" arrow that on any given day, may be pointing to the center that is our "average PR" or whatever measurement of skill we are using, or to a point that is higher or lower, depending on many factors, some of which we are not even aware.

That's not the whole story; I am certainly not saying anomalous results are always about how well we play. We have to avoid learning the wrong lesson by assuming we were "off" every time our results are bad. (Or that we're better than we actually are when we do well.) Sometimes when we go 3-and-out, it really was that our dice barfed at every opportunity they were given!

(I sometimes blame sunspot activity for my own varying performance, but I'm not serious. But it's been increasing during the last few years, leading up to a predicted maximum in 2013...)

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