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Future variations include:
How many of these are market losers? A hit and dance lose the market by a mile. Most often, we are too good after such a sequence. Rolling an unanswered set of big doublets will also lose our market. I am less certain about the sequences where White enters after a hit. Often he will have a take. Neither side seems likely to lose a gammon. With the 3pt anchor, White might lose a gammon 2-3% of the time, a little higher when we hit a third checker. After Blue is hit, he may not move again, so Blue’s gammon-loss rate might be on the order of 4-5% (guestimate!). Sometimes, we roll badly: 54, 63, 64 and 65 all leave a single shot outside. But White will only hit 13 or 14 times in 36, so our chance of being hit in the next two turns is at most (8/36) * (14/36) = 9%. At this match score, with low gammon possibilities for either side, and a fair number of market losers, I say we double. Double Mike | ||||||||||||||
