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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 3/21
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/21 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Wednesday, 28 March 2012, at 6:24 p.m.
Daily Quiz 21 march
Number 1:
I see two sensible options here: Coming under the gun with 24/21 (or 24/22) and making the 5-point. Although blue is far ahead in the race, the better white board and the 5 attacking checkers, make coming under the gun rather risky. White will have to blitz with every 2,3 and 4. I even think that the position is a Double/Take after coming up.
The other move 8/5 7/5 might seem a bit useless if seen from a priming point of view, we’d rather make the points 5 or 6 away from the anchor. But nevertheless it serves two purposes, it gives forward protection against a possible future blitz and it makes coming home against the 4-anchor easier when the last man has escaped (after escaping blue will have a double/take instead of a No Double). On top of that it still is a 4-prime.
Answer: 8/5 7/5
Number 2:
From a race point of view blue is far behind. And blue can opt for a risky play here (8x3) or a safe play (8/7 8/4). Then there is another, a bit more obscure play: 6/1.
Option 1: 8x3
When blue would have the better board, this would clearly be the best play, but as it is the risk is rather high. Not only is there the direct risk of being hit from the bar. But after an entry of white on point 1 or 2, blue only has 3 and 5 as good cover numbers. The gammon risk is rather high because of the 15 outfield crossovers. A close-out of 1 blue-checker has, in combination with 15 outfield crossover, a gammon-chance of about 80%.
Option 2: 8/7 8/4
Blue might wait for a safer outfield hit while creating some flexibility upfront. Alas it costs the 5-prime, and another disadvantage is that a possible white 9-point is at a medium safe (indirect) distance.
Option 3: 6/1
This move might be very wrong or surprisingly right. The big plus is that is keeps the 5-prime intact. The big question is: If white throws D5,54,53,D4,D3,D2 (12/36), can he afford to stay put in the outfield? I guess not. So after one of these throws blue will be able to gain some space in the outfield. When white throws a 6, and makes the 9-point, not so much is lost, there probably will come an indirect shot later on, and when white throws no 6 and 7 or lower, the indirect shot comes immediately.
Answer: 6/1
Number 3:
Even though white’s board looks a bit crunchy, with only one gap in front of a full prime the maximum numbers of checkers to pick-up is 2. So the maximum gain of playing on is a 2-checker-close-out meaning about 45% gammons, let’s make it 50%, because of the 1 extra outfield crossover. The problem with playing 11/2 is that 8/36 x 40% gammons run away (13,14,15,16)= 9% gammons. But blue closes the deal with a 2 or 51,53,31,D5 = 19/36. After playing 16/7 blue runs a risk of 11%, but closes the deal with every 2,4,65,63,53 = 29/36.
So in conclusion we have 19/36 x 31% gammons = 16% gammons for a risk of 0. And we have 29/36 x 40% gammons = 32% gammons for a risk of 11%.
So the extra cost is 11% risk for 16% gammons.
Answer: 11/2
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