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QF suggests that the obvious clear-from-the-rear move is not the answer. Still, it is the play I would make with nary a pause over the board. But what if I were to slow down a little? After reading Kit’s article Bearing in Safely, I always approach these types of positions by asking myself what the problem numbers are. In the given position, for instance, Blue is trying to clear his 6pt safely. While he is waiting for the right throw, his problems numbers are 4 and 5. When he rolls one of them, he won’t be able to lift the 6pt safely. While he is waiting, he would like to have a few extra checkers on the 4pt and 5pt to play in the interim.
After Blue clears the 6pt, his next set of problem numbers are 3 and 4. Those are the numbers that cannot be used to clear the 5pt safely. If he rotely picks up the 6pt now, as in the diagram above, he will have no extra 3s to play while he is waiting to clear four checkers from the 5pt. In fact, any 3 will be a forced move, ripping a checker off the 3pt. 31, 32 and 33 can be played safely, but 34, 35 and 36 expose a blot. Should Blue anticipte the problem, and stack up the 3pt now?
Now Blue faces disaster when he rolls 65, 64 or 54. All three leave two blots exposed. In addition, 53 and 43 force a single blot. This is clearly inferior. Is there a hybrid solution, perhaps one that volunteers a shot now, but leaves a balanced position later? Maybe 6/3 is the answer.
If White misses the hit, Blue can clean up this position with any roll except 55, 54 and 44 (the same problem numbers we started with!). It seems like a bad trade. Leave 20 shots now in order to avoid a potentially nonexistent problem later. QF might be saying, “Do it!” but over the board, never! Mike | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
