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Two from Cleveland

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Friday, 30 March 2012, at 4:03 p.m.

In Response To: Two from Cleveland (Bill Calton)

Two from Cleveland

Number 1

Hi Bill,

the method I use is a sort of adjusted Keith count. The first position doesn’t need any adjustment. So I just take the pipcount. I have an easy way of estimating the winning chances. An equal race of 20 resp. 40,80,160 pips gives 70%,65%,60%,55% (easy to remember). So 27 for the leader is about 68%. Now the pip-difference, also rather easy, the first 10 pips-difference I count 2 % per pip (further differences count for 1% per pip). So here I add 4%, makes 72%, good DT moment.

Answer: 28% for trailer

Number 2

In this position a little bit more adjustment is needed. According to the Keith count the gap on 6 counts for 1 pip, making it 12-10. Furthermore the player on the move has little variability (there only a little spread around the average number of moves left), this accounts for a penalty of 1,5 pips for the other player. Now we have 12 – 11,5 pips, 10 pips both equals 75%, 12 pips is about 74%, the difference in race is 0,5 pip = 1%, that makes 73%, DT.

Answer: 27% for the trailer

I have looked at your website, and for position 1 I am pretty happy with my result. I think your method for position 2 is better, just calculate the moves.

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