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Two from Cleveland

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 30 March 2012, at 4:59 p.m.

In Response To: Two from Cleveland (Bill Calton)

1) This is basically a pure pip count oriented race. All checkers on highish points and the same number for both sides. The score is close enough to money that you don't have to worry much unless you think the decision is very close for money.

By using a bot you should be able to basically memorize low wastage pip count oriented take/pass baseline positions. For money Black can still take down 3 pips and it should be the same AtS. Black would have to pass down 4 pips. So White is 1 pip from Black's point of last take. Easy problem then R/T clear for money so clear AtS.

What ever formula you're using for EPC seems to not apply to this simple position or perhaps you have the wrong formula? Anyhow I don't use EPC but use EPC-like adjustments and my experience and ref pos. Looking at your blog.. 33/7 actually equals 4.714 and the EPC difference is 1.7 here so that would lead you to a bare take. However, it is an easy take.

2) OK from your blog you did the right thing here. But you win 33 x 10=330 times which is over 1/4 and clearly you can win almost everytime your opp fails to get off in two rolls so you have an easy take since TP=25.64% CPW. You may wish to do the math and see how often Black fails to get off in 2 rolls, although some of those won't matter since Black only gets his second roll when White misses.

.. neilkaz ..

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