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No worries, not much at stake

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Saturday, 31 March 2012, at 5:40 a.m.

In Response To: No worries, not much at stake (Daniel Murphy)

Taking a checker off blots after 61 and 51. It also leads to more problems if you roll an ace next turn, especially 41. This is kind of double jeopardy play, but it wins more gammons.

Clearing 6pt blots after 66, 55 and 44. Clearly safest play, but it wins less gammons since it does not take a checker off.

It is very difficult to win a gammon once you put all spares on the ace point and there is only one [not counting second one on the bar] remaining checker to bring in.

So, if greedy play blots roughly 4.5/36 and safe play blots 3/36, then after greedy play Blue gets hit roughly [4.5-3]/[36*3]=1/72. Therefore, to justify the greedy play you need to find 1/36 extra gammons.

Can you find them? I am not sure, but in 1 and 2 I would play safe. In 3, 4 and 5 I am still not sure, but extra checkers to bring home seem like decent reason to go for extra G's.

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