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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 28 December 2006, at 6:27 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. Dec. 27th -- 1st Cube Decision (Stick)

As everyone surmised, big ND/T. I thought I might be able to tempt you given you're behind in the match but it's a rather long match and it's simply too early to give up the cube. You're the favorite, of course, but in a straight race you're only up with no contact you'd barely have a double. Here there's a ton of contact left, which is good for me since I'm behind. You have two points to clear and it won't be all that easy. The only market losers you are double 3s, 4s, 5s, and I'm not sure double 3s loses your market, I think I have to decide that soon though. lol Btw, I rolled this out w/GNU according to score and since I don't usually do that let me know if I fucked anything up or something could be displayed differently. It was a pain in the ass to set up and get the cube decision to come up esp. w/out using the 'hint' feature which I know won't save the rollout unless I C&P the text before I close it.


Match to 25, White leads 7 to 2
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
132
118
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.2880(Money: +0.2876)
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.6980
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.3020
3.Double, take +0.6202 -0.0778
Proper cube action:No double, take (20.5%)
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.64660.02040.0007-0.35340.02610.0007 +0.2880 +0.6980
Standard error0.00110.00080.0001-0.00110.00100.0001 0.0024 0.0043
Player gnubg owns 2-cube0.65170.01900.0004-0.34830.02490.0007 +0.6012 +0.6202
Standard error0.00120.00090.0002-0.00120.00090.0001 0.0053 0.0060
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1018711493 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 2 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
keep the first 0 1-ply moves
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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