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Daily Quiz 3/25: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 4 April 2012, at 5:27 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/25 (kruidenbuiltje)





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 155
11 point match
pip: 158
score: 9

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---b--E-DA--eC---b-bbb--B-:0:0:1:41:9:6:0:11:10
Blue to play 41

1.XG Roller+9/5 6/5eq: -0.720
Player:
Opponent:
36.42% (G:8.57% B:0.33%)
63.58% (G:18.58% B:0.83%)
2.XG Roller+24/23 13/9eq: -0.737 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
37.81% (G:8.58% B:0.33%)
62.19% (G:20.22% B:0.83%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross


Could be a good DQR candidate, again with the right variants.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 125
21 point match
pip: 134
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---AABCbC----CaabbBcb-b---:0:0:1:43:0:2:0:21:10
Blue to play 43

1.XG Roller+18/15* 18/14* eq: +0.056
Player:
Opponent:
52.03% (G:15.49% B:0.61%)
47.97% (G:19.80% B:1.46%)
2.XG Roller+18/15* 8/4eq: +0.016 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
50.31% (G:14.84% B:0.56%)
49.69% (G:19.78% B:0.94%)
3.XG Roller+8/4 6/3eq: -0.123 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:
46.17% (G:3.41% B:0.10%)
53.83% (G:4.09% B:0.08%)
4.XG Roller+18/14* 6/3eq: -0.130 (-0.187)
Player:
Opponent:
48.02% (G:11.28% B:0.47%)
51.98% (G:20.87% B:0.83%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross


I'm surprised that this one seems to be a take even for money.



Truncated rollout:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 105
21 point match
pip: 120
score: 2

Blue is Player 2
XGID=a--BBBC-BA--b--A-cAcA-bbb-:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:21:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 72.08% (G: 16.21% B: 0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.92% (G: 5.97% B: 0.16%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.98% (G: 16.94% B: 0.40%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.02% (G: 6.16% B: 0.21%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.545
Redouble:+1.103
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.791 (-0.098)
Redouble/Take:+0.889
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.111)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.008 (+0.783...+0.799)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.015 (+0.873...+0.904)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 03 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Truncated rollout for money:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 105
Money session
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=a--BBBC-BA--b--A-cAcA-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 72.06% (G: 16.36% B: 0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.94% (G: 5.90% B: 0.16%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.96% (G: 17.13% B: 0.40%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.04% (G: 6.22% B: 0.20%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.547
Redouble:+1.141
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.817 (-0.142)
Redouble/Take:+0.959
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.041)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.008 (+0.809...+0.825)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.016 (+0.943...+0.974)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 33 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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