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BGonline.org Forums
Nactation? Expert opinions please!
Posted By: Casper van der Tak In Response To: 41 to play (Snua)
Date: Thursday, 12 April 2012, at 8:42 p.m.
Very nice and complicated problem. I don't know my play yet, so some random thoughts:
AtS, we don't want to lose an undoubled gammon. The tradeoff between gammons and wins is difficult, because if we play a move that does not result in too many gammons, we will also give up on wins, and will get doubled more often. Probably one should weigh increasing wins more strongly than decreasing gammon losses, but by how much?
What is the game plan? We can play this as prime vs. prime, and if we can rectify our timing, also as a backgame. How likely is a successful BG? Not very, the timing is not there, and any checkers sent back will, for the time being, be behind a 6 prime. Therefore I think our first task is to crack the White prime. Treat it as a prime vs prime, with some possibilities to convert to a backgame.
What about White's blot on the 2? A further complication, we are not going to hit it this turn, but if we leave blots and get hit, we may have to hit it even if we do not like it. On the other hand, in some cases where White cracks, it may give some forward chances.
What number to block? We can make the 4, leaving White free to play 5s and 6s and blocking the smaller numbers, we can keep blocking 6s, or we can block 5s. After playing 8/2 twice, there are no further 6s, whereas there are 4 destructive 5s if we block 5s. The immediate swing on blocking 55 vs blocking 66 is big. I think we need to play the ace 8/7 for that reason. I don't like making the 4, because blocking the small numbers is not very efficient in cracking White.
Give the ace (see above), I believe I am going to play either 13/9 8/7 or 8/4 8/7. Than 8/4 looks more logical as it attempts to build a solid 5 prime.
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