         
 
         
 | | White is XG Roller++
score: 7
pip: 118 | | 15 point match | pip: 134
score: 13
Blue is BGO Readers |
| | XGID=-a--B-D-E---cBa--bBb-bb-b-:0:0:1:43:13:7:0:15:10 | | Blue to play 43 | | |
This is the sort of tough choice that separates champions from middle-of-the-pack players (like me!). Here is my best shot:
Before playing this 43, we trail by 16 pips. The roll gets us 7 pips, and hitting outside would return 14 more, so were we to hit, we would lead by 5 pips. With White on roll, that’s a near dead heat. Otherwise, we can try something like two down or slotting the 5pt. Gammon awareness is important here. After a fan, we might be forced to drop a cube that we could take in unlimited games.
- Hit: 18/15, 18/14*
This play leaves 2 blots and 12 shots (21 22 23 25 31 33 35). Abandoning the anchor is highly committal. If we are hit, we will be under pressure to roll well immediately, or else face an unwanted cube.
– - Hit: 18/14*/11
This play leaves 2 blots, and 17 shots (11 12 13 15 61 62 63 65 22 33). Giving up the haven of an anchor could be costly.
– - Hit: 8/1*
By comparison, leaving a direct shot is safer. Here there is 1 blot, and 11 shots. After a hit, we still have life, albeit as underdogs. Even when we are not hit, the next roll will be an adventure. There are few point-making numbers.
– - Down: 13/10, 13/9
Playing down leaves one blot each on the 9pt and 10pt. White can hit with 8 numbers (22 44 62 45 63). When we are missed, the prognosis for improving our position is good.
– - Slot: 8/5, 8/4
By unstacking the 8pt, this play solves some of our distribution problems. When it works, we have good chances to improve our position on the following roll. It leaves 1 blot and 14 shots (any 4, plus 31 22).
–
I don’t care for any of the hitting plays. For me, it’s close between slotting and playing down. I will opt for playing down.
D (Down) = 13/10, 13/9
Mike |