42P-21S-51S-54 *** Rollout ***

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Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Saturday, 14 April 2012, at 7:08 a.m.

In Response To: 42P-21S-51S-54 — To hit, or not to hit... (Taper_Mike)

–

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aa---E-C--AdD---c-d-b-AA-:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 54
1. Rollout¹ 24/15 eq: -0.4260
Player:
Opponent: 41.51% (G:9.39% B:0.45%)
58.49% (G:22.43% B:0.99%) Conf.: ±0.0028 (-0.4288...-0.4232) - [99.7%]
Duration: 4 hours 30 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/1* eq: -0.4317 (-0.0057)
Player:
Opponent: 40.62% (G:9.82% B:0.36%)
59.38% (G:20.80% B:1.33%) Conf.: ±0.0028 (-0.4345...-0.4289) - [0.3%]
Duration: 4 hours 28 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/8 eq: -0.4333 (-0.0072)
Player:
Opponent: 40.39% (G:10.25% B:0.49%)
59.61% (G:20.40% B:1.09%) Conf.: ±0.0028 (-0.4361...-0.4304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 06 minutes
4. Rollout² 23/14 eq: -0.4457 (-0.0197)
Player:
Opponent: 40.53% (G:9.08% B:0.43%)
59.47% (G:21.33% B:0.93%) Conf.: ±0.0043 (-0.4501...-0.4414) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes

¹ 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74282306
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74282306
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

42P-21S-51S-54 – [r X6 Z7 R20] – "<=41**15

Since this is TCTL, everyone was right!
Although Dmitriy’s alternative is a bit harder, my guess is that X = Hit and split (8/3* 24/20) is a contender. It dupes threes nicely. Now, if only I were giant, then my guess would be worth something!
Mike