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OLM Sa 04/14/12

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 14 April 2012, at 6:28 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 04/14/12 (Jason Lee)

Take. We get hit (now) about 1/3 of the time and don't lose all of those. We get missed about 2/3 of the time and don't lose all of those either. We're up in the race. Immediate hits are 13/36. If missed, all of our number can safety both blots, and about 1/3 of our numbers can safety both blots (although we may have better ways to play some of these numbers). That we win about half the time seems a reasonable guess. If so and as much as half our losses were gammons, then

-0-8100% * 0.50 =50%
-2-680% * 0.25 =20%
-2-467% * 0.25 =16.75%
86.75%

Compared to 84% at -2-7 if we pass. That's a comfortable take.

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