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Rollout Result Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 15 April 2012, at 3:58 a.m.

In Response To: Break Anchor? (Paul Weaver)

Scroll down to see a diagram of the position after the best play has been made.





White is Lyurix

score: 0
pip: 164
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=-a-B-aD-C-a-cC--bc-d-B---A:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.Rollout1Bar/22 21/15eq: -0.225
Player:
Opponent:		44.26% (G:12.18% B:0.62%)
55.74% (G:15.20% B:0.77%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.241...-0.210) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 15 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 8/2eq: -0.264 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		42.43% (G:11.15% B:0.36%)
57.57% (G:11.94% B:0.53%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.279...-0.249) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 35 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: -0.300 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:		41.55% (G:11.36% B:0.40%)
58.45% (G:12.62% B:0.54%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.316...-0.285) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 47 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
White is Lyurix

score: 0
pip: 164
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=-a-B-aD-C-a-cC-Abc-d-AA---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 55.93% (G:15.20% B:0.85%) 56.08% (G:15.79% B:0.89%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.07% (G:12.35% B:0.63%) 43.92% (G:12.67% B:0.68%)
Cubeless Equities +0.149 +0.309
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.233±0.016 (+0.217..+0.250)
Double/Beaver:-0.048 (-0.281)±0.050 (-0.097..+0.002)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.767)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 21.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16 minutes 53 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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