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a few rollouts

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Sunday, 15 April 2012, at 10:27 a.m.

In Response To: BG trivia question (Dmitriy Obukhov)

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 157 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-b--BBB-B--AdD---c-e--a-AA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 70.35% (G:25.91% B:2.05%) 70.59% (G:26.12% B:2.04%) Opponent Winning Chances: 29.65% (G:6.58% B:0.30%) 29.41% (G:6.83% B:0.34%) Cubeless Equities +0.618 +1.243 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.886 (-0.114) ±0.006 (+0.880..+0.893) Double/Take: +1.015 (+0.015) ±0.011 (+1.005..+1.026) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75109221 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 99.8% Duration: 23 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-aa-BBB-B--AdD---c-e--a-AA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 68.99% (G:25.31% B:1.67%) 69.31% (G:25.67% B:1.67%) Opponent Winning Chances: 31.01% (G:7.09% B:0.31%) 30.69% (G:7.13% B:0.33%) Cubeless Equities +0.576 +1.170 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.845 (-0.090) ±0.007 (+0.838..+0.852) Double/Take: +0.935 ±0.010 (+0.925..+0.945) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.065) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75109221 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 23 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 155 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-a-aBBB-B--AdD---c-e--a-AA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 68.40% (G:23.72% B:1.46%) 68.29% (G:25.84% B:1.70%) Opponent Winning Chances: 31.60% (G:7.24% B:0.33%) 31.71% (G:7.68% B:0.41%) Cubeless Equities +0.544 +1.121 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.800 (-0.078) ±0.007 (+0.792..+0.807) Double/Take: +0.877 ±0.010 (+0.867..+0.887) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.123) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75109221 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 25 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-b--BBB-B--AdD--ab-e--a-AA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 70.51% (G:28.94% B:3.03%) 70.56% (G:28.44% B:2.91%) Opponent Winning Chances: 29.49% (G:6.56% B:0.31%) 29.44% (G:6.74% B:0.35%) Cubeless Equities +0.661 +1.308 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.902 (-0.098) ±0.006 (+0.897..+0.908) Double/Take: +1.078 (+0.078) ±0.011 (+1.067..+1.089) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75109221 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 22 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 157 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-aa-BBB-B--AdD--ab-e--a-AA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 69.33% (G:28.28% B:2.35%) 68.96% (G:29.51% B:2.65%) Opponent Winning Chances: 30.67% (G:6.88% B:0.32%) 31.04% (G:7.24% B:0.41%) Cubeless Equities +0.621 +1.249 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.858 (-0.142) ±0.005 (+0.853..+0.863) Double/Take: +1.006 (+0.006) ±0.008 (+0.998..+1.014) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75109221 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 92.3% Duration: 46 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-a-aBBB-B--AdD--ab-e--a-AA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 68.42% (G:27.10% B:2.22%) 68.43% (G:28.70% B:2.73%) Opponent Winning Chances: 31.58% (G:7.33% B:0.37%) 31.57% (G:7.37% B:0.38%) Cubeless Equities +0.585 +1.211 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.813 (-0.156) ±0.007 (+0.806..+0.820) Double/Take: +0.969 ±0.010 (+0.959..+0.980) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.031) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75109221 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 24 minutes 15 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Messages In This Thread

• BG trivia question
  storm -- Friday, 13 April 2012, at 5:27 p.m.
  • BG trivia question
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Friday, 13 April 2012, at 10:33 p.m.
    • BG trivia question
      Stick -- Saturday, 14 April 2012, at 5:49 p.m.
    • a few rollouts
      Dmitriy Obukhov -- Sunday, 15 April 2012, at 10:27 a.m.
      • Fifth roll cubes from the bar
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 15 April 2012, at 3:03 p.m.