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42P-22E-31, Rollout (at the score)

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 15 April 2012, at 4:44 p.m.

In Response To: 42P-22E-31, Rollout (money) (Nack Ballard)

Thanks, Nack. I'll cut off my GNUBG ATS rollout now (reported JSDs are 2.3 and 2.6). Perhaps someone will do a longer one with XG.

The position is from the first 7-point match of the 2012 Nordic Open final.

The score (after 2 games) is: Shahab 2, Thomas 1 (match to 7 points)

Move number 3: Shahab to play 31

Shahab161

 ' '2O2X '4X '2X ' ' '5O

2XÂ 'Â '2OÂ '3OÂ '3OÂ 'Â 'Â '5X
Thomas159
Position ID: mHPwAQyYZ/ABMA Match ID: MIHlACAACAAE

• Shahab moves 24/20

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity -0.0993(Money: -0.0835)
 0.4768 0.1109 0.0033 - 0.5232 0.1464 0.0049
Cubeful equities:
1.No double -0.1768Â
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +1.1768
3.Double, take -0.6998 -0.5230
Proper cube action:No double, take (30.8%)

Â

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R 24/20 -0.2288
Â
0.46750.11380.0099-0.53250.15240.0070 -0.1176 -0.2288
0.00230.00240.0026-0.00230.00290.0018 0.0061 0.0152
Â
 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. Â
 667 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 916516960 and quasi-random dice Â
 Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] Â
 keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Â
 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Â
 Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] Â
 2 R 8/5 6/5 -0.2783 ( -0.0495)
Â
0.45420.12540.0071-0.54580.15570.0077 -0.1406 -0.2783
0.00210.00250.0012-0.00210.00290.0007 0.0064 0.0146
Â
 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. Â
 665 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 916516960 and quasi-random dice Â
 Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] Â
 keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Â
 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Â
 Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] Â
 3 R 24/23 13/10 -0.2831 ( -0.0543)
Â
0.45550.11530.0070-0.54450.15700.0074 -0.1415 -0.2831
0.00210.00230.0014-0.00210.00280.0017 0.0060 0.0147
Â
 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. Â
 666 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 916516960 and quasi-random dice Â
 Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] Â
 keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Â
 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Â
 Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] Â

Move, playFalafel's running commentary
Shahab 42: 8/4 6/4 "42, that's a good roll, of course Shahab makes the 4."
Thomas 22: 24/22(2) 6/4(2) "22, that's theoretical, that is the right play, that is the right play, this one I know."
Shahab 31: 24/20 "31 must make the 5 because it's the 5, Shahab wants to invent a play, that's reasonable, all right all right Shahab, you had the 5 point."
Thomas 31: plays 8/5* 6/5 "Oh wow he gets well ok a bit punished on that roll."
Shahab 33: plays bar/22 13/10 8/5(2)"Threes, ok you get to make it again buddy, you get to do it again, God bless you, God bless, baby."

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