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42P-22E-31, Rollout (at the score)
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: 42P-22E-31, Rollout (money) (Nack Ballard)
Date: Sunday, 15 April 2012, at 4:44 p.m.
Thanks, Nack. I'll cut off my GNUBG ATS rollout now (reported JSDs are 2.3 and 2.6). Perhaps someone will do a longer one with XG.
The position is from the first 7-point match of the 2012 Nordic Open final.
The score (after 2 games) is: Shahab 2, Thomas 1 (match to 7 points)
Move number 3: Shahab to play 31
Shahab 161
Thomas 159 Position ID: mHPwAQyYZ/ABMA Match ID: MIHlACAACAAE • Shahab moves 24/20
Cube decision 2-ply cubeless equity -0.0993 (Money: -0.0835) Â 0.4768 0.1109 0.0033 - 0.5232 0.1464 0.0049 Cubeful equities: 1. No double -0.1768 Â 2. Double, pass +1.0000 +1.1768 3. Double, take -0.6998 -0.5230 Proper cube action: No double, take (30.8%) Â
# Ply Move Equity • 1 R 24/20 -0.2288 Â
0.4675 0.1138 0.0099 - 0.5325 0.1524 0.0070 -0.1176 -0.2288 0.0023 0.0024 0.0026 - 0.0023 0.0029 0.0018 0.0061 0.0152   Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.   667 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 916516960 and quasi-random dice   Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]   keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32   Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.   Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]   2 R 8/5 6/5 -0.2783 ( -0.0495) Â
0.4542 0.1254 0.0071 - 0.5458 0.1557 0.0077 -0.1406 -0.2783 0.0021 0.0025 0.0012 - 0.0021 0.0029 0.0007 0.0064 0.0146   Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.   665 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 916516960 and quasi-random dice   Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]   keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32   Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.   Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]   3 R 24/23 13/10 -0.2831 ( -0.0543) Â
0.4555 0.1153 0.0070 - 0.5445 0.1570 0.0074 -0.1415 -0.2831 0.0021 0.0023 0.0014 - 0.0021 0.0028 0.0017 0.0060 0.0147   Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.   666 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 916516960 and quasi-random dice   Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]   keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32   Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.   Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] Â
Move, play Falafel's running commentary Shahab 42: 8/4 6/4 "42, that's a good roll, of course Shahab makes the 4." Thomas 22: 24/22(2) 6/4(2) "22, that's theoretical, that is the right play, that is the right play, this one I know." Shahab 31: 24/20 "31 must make the 5 because it's the 5, Shahab wants to invent a play, that's reasonable, all right all right Shahab, you had the 5 point." Thomas 31: plays 8/5* 6/5 "Oh wow he gets well ok a bit punished on that roll." Shahab 33: plays bar/22 13/10 8/5(2) "Threes, ok you get to make it again buddy, you get to do it again, God bless you, God bless, baby."
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