[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Daily Quiz 4/7: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 15 April 2012, at 6:43 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/7 (Daily Quiz)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 169
11 point match
pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aa--B-EbB---cC--aa-bb-bAB-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 65

1.XG Roller+23/17* 13/8eq: +0.408
Player:
Opponent:		 54.64% (G:24.54% B:2.17%)
45.36% (G:12.73% B:0.69%)
2.XG Roller+23/17* 6/1* eq: +0.402 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		 53.71% (G:26.82% B:2.23%)
46.29% (G:14.09% B:0.90%)
3.XG Roller+24/18 23/18eq: +0.342 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:		 54.49% (G:18.10% B:0.80%)
45.51% (G:12.41% B:0.51%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

The cube location makes less difference than I expected:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 169
11 point match
pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aa--B-EbB---cC--aa-bb-bAB-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 65

1.XG Roller+23/17* 13/8eq: +0.052
Player:
Opponent:		 54.48% (G:24.41% B:2.14%)
45.52% (G:12.72% B:0.69%)
2.XG Roller+23/17* 6/1* eq: +0.044 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		 53.67% (G:26.79% B:2.23%)
46.33% (G:14.02% B:0.89%)
3.XG Roller+24/18 23/18eq: -0.010 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		 54.48% (G:18.09% B:0.83%)
45.52% (G:12.37% B:0.49%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

White's chances are better than I thought.

Truncated rollout:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 202
11 point match
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=ca-AB-EbB---cB--A--bb-b-B-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G: 42.08% B: 5.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G: 7.87% B: 0.47%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.90% (G: 42.06% B: 5.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.10% (G: 8.10% B: 0.48%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.701
Redouble:+1.298
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.881 (-0.119)
Redouble/Take:+1.002 (+0.002)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.009 (+0.871...+0.890)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.015 (+0.987...+1.017)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 59.7%
Duration: 2 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Truncated rollout:





White is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 96
11 point match
pip: 127
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-aBBBBBA---A--A-b-c-Bbbd-:1:-1:1:54:1:8:0:11:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout115/10 12/8eq: +1.169
Player:
Opponent:		 90.29% (G:29.28% B:1.13%)
9.71% (G:0.91% B:0.02%)		Conf: ± 0.009 (+1.160...+1.178)
Duration: 1 minute 52 seconds
2.Rollout121/16 12/8eq: +1.147 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		 90.54% (G:27.20% B:1.02%)
9.46% (G:0.67% B:0.02%)		Conf: ± 0.007 (+1.140...+1.154)
Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout112/8 7/2* eq: +1.072 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:		 85.27% (G:30.73% B:1.04%)
14.73% (G:5.02% B:0.10%)		Conf: ± 0.012 (+1.060...+1.084)
Duration: 51.3 seconds
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply.
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.