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Daily Quiz 4/9

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Wednesday, 18 April 2012, at 2:47 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/9 (Daily Quiz)

Daily Quiz 9 april 2012

Number 1

Initially only 63 gives a shot, and not even a big one (only 13/36). When I add the subsequent shot-giving-numbers I come to a hit-% of about 12% totally. After passing the cube white will have to win somewhere between 2 and 3 times, the chance of doing this lies between 12,5% and 25%. So white is better off passing the cube.

Answer: DP

Number 2

The risk of leaving the midpoint right now with 13/8 is 16/36 (44%), but effectively it’s lower, because of the returns, let’s say it will come down to somewhere between 25% and 30%. After playing 8/4 8/7 blue still has at least 17 free pips, so he has 3 moves to clear the midpoint safely with 65, D2 – D6. He will have to give a shot 53% of the time, making a hit-chance of about 23%. So paying later is better.

Answer: 8/4 8/7

Number 3

According to the race blue has a winning-chance of about 70%. Say he’d leave the anchor and could then claim the game, he would then win 30% equity. The anchor-leaving variation costs 16/36 = 44%, that is too much. The variation 13/4 costs 10/36 = 27%, but gives 8/36 extra chance of making a good point (when we compare it to 9/4 8/4). An extra point is not an extra win, and even then it wouldn't be a good deal.

Answer: 9/4 8/4

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