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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/12
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/12 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Wednesday, 18 April 2012, at 5:44 p.m.
Daily Quiz 12 april 2012
Number 1
Blue hits initially 20/36 (55%) and another 8% after a white non-cover, that makes 63% . Since the cube is dead after the double blue can cube now.
Answer: DT
Number 2
White hits 10/36 in first instance, and leaves no shots himself. On his next move blue gets to hit another 2,6/36, so totally 12,6/36 = 35% hits. The race is pretty equal, so the non-hitters have to be divided between blue and white, but later on white will get more shots than blue, since white will have a better playable position by then. So blue gets 35% wins and less than half of the rest, I guess about 60% wins for blue.
Answer: 60%
Number 3
The answer on the second part of the question is: very small = (16/36)^6 x (9/36) ^2 = 0,048%. But that doesn’t answer the first question. If blue were able to close-out the checker, his chance would be about 42%. The truth will be somewhere between these two outbounds, but where? What if blue made the 6-point soon? Then the formula would say: (25/36)^4 x (16/36)^2 x (9/36)^2 = 0,6%. Well that narrows the margins a bit. Since blue is not a favourite to close the 6-point let’s try another idea: Let’s say that blue on average will kick white back on the bar one time, and let’s say this will cost white 2 moves, then the formula will go to (16/36)^4 x (9/36)^2 = 0,24%, assuming the same factorial increase with the assumption of a 5-point board will make that value go to 3%. So the truth will lie between 0,24% and 3%, but closer to the first number.
Answer: 1%
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