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BGonline.org Forums
OLM Tu 04/17/12
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje In Response To: OLM Tu 04/17/12 (Jason Lee)
Date: Wednesday, 18 April 2012, at 6:03 p.m.
OLM 17/4/2012
If white throws a 1 or 2 (except D2) twice we will have two more moves after this move. The chance of this happening = 1 – (17/36)^2 = 78%. First let’s presume we will need to get off the board next move (22% true) then all moves that bring 2 checkers into the board will give us D2 to D6 to keep us from being gammoned. So what we are really looking for is a move that gives us the chance to take a checker off with 2 subsequent 21’s (all other moves will work as well, when these will work). The fancy looking 7/2 8/4 doesn’t do that, the most obvious looking 8/4 8/3 does it.
Answer: 8/4 8/3
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