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Simple bear off redouble ***ROLLOUT***

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 19 April 2012, at 1:03 a.m.

In Response To: Simple bear off redouble ***ROLLOUT*** (Dmitriy Obukhov)

For money.

	NO DOUBLE			DOUBLE/TAKE
Final Cube level	Total	White wins	Blue wins	Total	White wins	Blue wins
4	63.217%	22.519%	40.698%	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
8	32.971%	8.127%	24.844%	88.466%	31.129%	57.337%
16	3.774%	2.631%	1.143%	11.008%	7.934%	3.074%
32	0.028%	0.007%	0.021%	0.398%	0.123%	0.275%
64	0.010%	0.007%	0.003%	0.128%	0.070%	0.058%
	100.000%	33.291%	66.709%	100.000%	39.256%	60.744%

After no double now, White wins	33.291% (-2.940%)
Cubeless, White wins	36.231%
After double/take now, White wins	39.256% (+3.025%)

Unlimited match, Blue on roll

White	26
Blue	9
Position ID: tgwAAP8BAAAAAA Match ID: UgkAAAAAAAAA

Alert: wrong double ( -0.1270)! [very bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.2759
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.4613
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.5387
3.	Double, take	+0.3343	-0.1270
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (19.1%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.6380 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3620 0.0000 0.0000 +0.2759 +0.4613 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Player White owns 8-cube 0.6377 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3623 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5507 +0.3343 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
100000 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 917345030 and quasi-random dice
Play: 4ply 4-ply cubeful prune [4ply]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 4 more moves within equity 0.08
Skip pruning for 3-ply moves.
Cube: 4-ply cubeful prune [4ply]

Messages In This Thread

• Simple bear off redouble
  Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 16 April 2012, at 8:04 p.m.
  • Simple bear off redouble
    Stick -- Monday, 16 April 2012, at 8:28 p.m.
    • Simple bear off redouble
      rambiz -- Monday, 16 April 2012, at 10:13 p.m.
      • Simple bear off redouble
        Stick -- Monday, 16 April 2012, at 10:37 p.m.
        • Simple bear off redouble
          Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 17 April 2012, at 8:32 a.m.
  • Simple bear off redouble
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 17 April 2012, at 9:23 a.m.
  • Simple bear off redouble
    Rick Janowski -- Tuesday, 17 April 2012, at 9:20 p.m.
    • Great post!
      Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 19 April 2012, at 8:28 a.m.
    • Simple bear off redouble *** Correction and Supplementary Info"
      Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 21 April 2012, at 2:10 p.m.
  • Simple bear off redouble
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 18 April 2012, at 1:50 p.m.
    • Simple bear off redouble
      ah_clem -- Wednesday, 18 April 2012, at 1:53 p.m.
    • two great humans...
      Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 18 April 2012, at 5:02 p.m.
  • Simple bear off redouble ***ROLLOUT***
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Thursday, 19 April 2012, at 12:00 a.m.
    • Simple bear off redouble ***ROLLOUT***
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 19 April 2012, at 1:03 a.m.