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Opinions and needles

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 14 October 2007, at 7:53 a.m.

In Response To: Opinions and needles (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Heads up against a complete novice who goes all in on every hand, all our pro's skills are for naught. The only decision the pro has to make is how often to call, and that depends on the size of the blinds in relation to the size of the stacks.

If Blind = Stack, pro must call with any hand and wins 50% of the time.

If Blind = zero, pro can wait for AA and win whatever that is, about 80% vs. a random hand.

As Blind increases, waiting for AA is going to win less often than 80%, since every Blind the pro doesn't contest increases the chance that the novice will win even if he loses to the pro's AA. Which means that as the Blind increases, the pro is going to have to call with more and more hands.

Assuming somewhat normal blind progression, optimal strategy for the pro is to call with a very few hands that together win X% against a random hand, and thereafter winning the session something less than X% on account of the blinds lost waiting for a hand.

If 'marv' is right, what's happening is something like this (thanks to 'illegit' in 2+2 forum for pokerstove stats):

Calling hands = 6 -- JJ AKs AKo or better which win 74.54% against a random hand.

Calling hands = 9 -- TT AQs AQo or better which win 71.82% against a random hand

So yeah, I agree that about 66% seems reasonable, again, depending on the blind structure.

The proof is out there ....

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