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Daily Quiz 4/11

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 20 April 2012, at 1:47 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/11 (Daily Quiz)

1. I think we have to start with 24/20(2), especially ATS where gammon wins don't count but gammon losses do. After that I'm not sure but I guess I would play 13/9(2).

2. 65 63 62 61 52 51 give White a double shot immediately; let's give White 8 wins out of 36 for these. 54 41 33 31 give White a single direct shot immediately, with further chances even if she misses; let's give White 3 wins out of 36. Let's assume Blue wins after 66 64 44 22; that's 5 wins out of 36 for Blue. Blue usually wins after 11 and 53. The remaining rolls are 55 43 42 32 21; these more-or-less repeat the position. Say White wins 4 out of 36 in these variations. This gives us 15 wins out of 36. That's 58% wins for Blue. There's quite a bit of fudging here but 55% to 60% looks plausible to me.

3. We're far enough behind in the race that I like leaving our anchors where they are for the moment. We could consider breaking our board but I think our 8pt is more dispensable. 8/5.

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